{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d3396e6-6a6e-4d5d-bf2d-b4646707e5f9", "symbol": "KR", "name": "Kroger Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.594, "architecture_energy": 47.97, "architecture_maturity": 30.079, "architecture_confidence": 89.6, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 6.62, "deceleration": 55.23, "rotation_down": 58.92, "downward_expansion": 82.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.56, 58.213455, 60.756889, 62.991301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.73, "trend_reference": 64.949404, "distance_from_trend": -0.126551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.85485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.42828, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15095, "excess_performance": -0.276575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019443, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15095, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.548666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32673225, "relative_activity": 0.993651, "balance": 1.548666, "dry_up": 1.032341, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078913, "annualized_volatility": 0.321601, "from_high_reference": -0.255279, "from_low_reference": 0.047645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.949404, "fair_value_reference": 57.85485, "structural_low": 54.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019726, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.011807, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.134263, "worst_return": -0.172122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024419, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.087088, "worst_return": -0.068491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293173, "worst_return": -0.045749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 33669468.35, "trend": 65.174693, "fair_value": 57.712187, "relative_strength": -19.901929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.812562, "energy": 50.42312, "activity_lines": [ 58.361333, 59.281273, 62.156135, 64.005924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.74, "volume": 32074056, "typical_volume": 33383701.7, "trend": 65.021965, "fair_value": 57.785224, "relative_strength": -18.967916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.518096, "energy": 45.311452, "activity_lines": [ 58.129333, 58.752727, 61.463033, 63.526267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.73, "volume": 32673225, "typical_volume": 32881993.95, "trend": 64.949404, "fair_value": 57.85485, "relative_strength": -22.42828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.594376, "energy": 47.969819, "activity_lines": [ 57.56, 58.213455, 60.756889, 62.991301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }