{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d38e875-5b6e-4520-a422-46060912e64a", "symbol": "PFE", "name": "Pfizer Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.55, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.815, "architecture_energy": 16.104, "architecture_maturity": 61.168, "architecture_confidence": 51.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.75, "rotation_up": 37.83, "upward_expansion": 19.99, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 19.27, "downward_expansion": 56.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.010752, 21.718271, 21.883504, 22.082854 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.85, "trend_reference": 22.204785, "distance_from_trend": 0.029057, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.847419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.191502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01324, "excess_performance": -0.161007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029057, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01324, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033004, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10742, "relative_activity": 2.602386, "balance": 1.033004, "dry_up": 1.91115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032715, "annualized_volatility": 0.208392, "from_high_reference": -0.058242, "from_low_reference": 0.200231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.204785, "fair_value_reference": 21.847419, "structural_low": 20.318628, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003028, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.032146, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.083187, "worst_return": -0.106849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.106819, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.150073, "worst_return": -0.121923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.128546, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.214973, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.115692, "worst_return": -0.178071, "sufficient": 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22.284258, 22.265492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.960783, "volume": 716, "typical_volume": 3469.15, "trend": 22.051273, "fair_value": 22.008172, "relative_strength": -21.167583, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.213978, "energy": 59.342299, "activity_lines": [ 21.399476, 21.752014, 22.13897, 22.194141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.784315, "volume": 13423, "typical_volume": 3869.45, "trend": 22.034579, "fair_value": 21.973739, "relative_strength": -20.370423, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.692215, "energy": 70.635369, "activity_lines": [ 21.080202, 21.543691, 21.986926, 22.112401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.700981, "volume": 5422, "typical_volume": 4043.5, "trend": 22.06607, "fair_value": 21.938422, "relative_strength": -14.914223, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.814038, "energy": 61.562041, "activity_lines": [ 21.190196, 21.530597, 21.928076, 22.090879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.615, "volume": 5241, "typical_volume": 3781.25, "trend": 22.10367, "fair_value": 21.903295, "relative_strength": -16.048807, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.812733, "energy": 57.632857, "activity_lines": [ 21.331798, 21.506125, 21.866558, 22.061778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.719999, "volume": 10150, "typical_volume": 3892.9, "trend": 22.139641, "fair_value": 21.874367, "relative_strength": -15.300224, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.670311, "energy": 29.135479, "activity_lines": [ 21.512823, 21.50447, 21.818448, 22.037025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.85, "volume": 10742, "typical_volume": 4127.75, "trend": 22.204785, "fair_value": 21.847419, "relative_strength": -13.191502, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.814915, "energy": 16.104351, "activity_lines": [ 22.010752, 21.718271, 21.883504, 22.082854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }