{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d394b39-43c1-45f3-9085-79c76731eb20", "symbol": "XLEP", "name": "Invesco Energy S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.989, "architecture_energy": 40.021, "architecture_maturity": 16.684, "architecture_confidence": 68.458, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.88, "rotation_up": 64.17, "upward_expansion": 74.35, "deceleration": 58.9, "rotation_down": 11.86, "downward_expansion": 5.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 61012.0, 59834.909091, 59567.952381, 59416.704301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60300.0, "trend_reference": 58342.416667, "distance_from_trend": 0.033553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48539.173077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242296, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.016948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114809, "excess_performance": 0.063573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022639, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050169, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10989, "relative_activity": 1.053075, "balance": 0.964902, "dry_up": 0.781925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048691, "annualized_volatility": 0.289612, "from_high_reference": -0.101877, "from_low_reference": 0.405922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58342.416667, "fair_value_reference": 48539.173077, "structural_low": 53960.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026542, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007328, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.127833, "worst_return": -0.070493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115197, "worst_return": -0.112907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01095, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.064659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.636911, "worst_return": -0.100367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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57170.666667, 58192.363636, 58933.571429, 58341.973118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60210.0, "volume": 8014, "typical_volume": 11746.95, "trend": 56864.416667, "fair_value": 48215.698718, "relative_strength": 8.849191, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.109021, "energy": 14.973974, "activity_lines": [ 58032.666667, 58452.545455, 59010.214286, 58589.021505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63150.0, "volume": 7373, "typical_volume": 11149.2, "trend": 57441.666667, "fair_value": 48341.349359, "relative_strength": 12.303675, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.093033, "energy": 25.905958, "activity_lines": [ 59881.333333, 59196.181818, 59350.571429, 58994.543011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61630.0, "volume": 6262, "typical_volume": 10560.6, "trend": 57944.833333, "fair_value": 48448.278846, "relative_strength": 7.960255, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.826931, "energy": 38.421851, "activity_lines": [ 60810.666667, 59637.818182, 59525.809524, 59264.758065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60300.0, "volume": 10989, "typical_volume": 10435.15, "trend": 58342.416667, "fair_value": 48539.173077, "relative_strength": 5.016948, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.989442, "energy": 40.020966, "activity_lines": [ 61012.0, 59834.909091, 59567.952381, 59416.704301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }