{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d3e98fe-fc54-4de6-ae33-65d0cbe997d6", "symbol": "XZMJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.989, "architecture_energy": 41.969, "architecture_maturity": 58.172, "architecture_confidence": 85.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.95, "rotation_up": 42.13, "upward_expansion": 72.43, "deceleration": 91.38, "rotation_down": 28.58, "downward_expansion": 10.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.463666, 28.442182, 27.980357, 27.392892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.424999, "trend_reference": 26.719667, "distance_from_trend": 0.101249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.228893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.180974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131078, "excess_performance": 0.066439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101249, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051569, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06181, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.300434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182056, "relative_activity": 1.367713, "balance": 2.300434, "dry_up": 1.059359, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033475, "annualized_volatility": 0.208816, "from_high_reference": -0.003893, "from_low_reference": 0.306326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.719667, "fair_value_reference": 22.228893, "structural_low": 23.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019745, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005485, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.087466, "worst_return": -0.036463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040337, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.03768, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.193137, "worst_return": -0.065224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067949, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140753, "worst_return": -0.091865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.182591, "energy": 81.925194, "activity_lines": [ 28.742667, 28.358, 27.456214, 26.92514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.475, "volume": 119639, "typical_volume": 145453.15, "trend": 26.3415, "fair_value": 22.028354, "relative_strength": 6.146146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.537804, "energy": 50.624375, "activity_lines": [ 28.371667, 28.260727, 27.528738, 27.005183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.93, "volume": 137176, "typical_volume": 143139.65, "trend": 26.462167, "fair_value": 22.08879, "relative_strength": 6.341899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.058838, "energy": 38.888181, "activity_lines": [ 28.164667, 28.239636, 27.641595, 27.107667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.045, "volume": 125173, "typical_volume": 138081.3, "trend": 26.586833, "fair_value": 22.154194, "relative_strength": 4.26028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.203323, "energy": 28.990156, "activity_lines": [ 28.068667, 28.221091, 27.752833, 27.209785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.424999, "volume": 182056, "typical_volume": 133109.8, "trend": 26.719667, "fair_value": 22.228893, "relative_strength": 6.180974, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.989282, "energy": 41.969389, "activity_lines": [ 28.463666, 28.442182, 27.980357, 27.392892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }