{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d445afd-96bb-4e2c-9343-3747bd586be1", "symbol": "MTC", "name": "MetalsTech Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.121, "architecture_energy": 45.646, "architecture_maturity": 66.062, "architecture_confidence": 66.097, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.1, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 19.74, "deceleration": 64.68, "rotation_down": 40.73, "downward_expansion": 67.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.176091, 0.202857, 0.219731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.185, "trend_reference": 0.2345, "distance_from_trend": -0.211087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.193077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.678126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195652, "excess_performance": -0.259358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.340223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30451, "relative_activity": 0.05019, "balance": 0.340223, "dry_up": 0.164176, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139293, "annualized_volatility": 0.670561, "from_high_reference": -0.513158, "from_low_reference": 0.37037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2345, "fair_value_reference": 0.193077, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.018117, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.536585, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012331, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.6875, "worst_return": -0.322581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034099, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.809524, "worst_return": -0.448276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.165, "volume": 186496, "typical_volume": 713978.35, "trend": 0.240333, "fair_value": 0.193397, "relative_strength": -31.531492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.491127, "energy": 77.558999, "activity_lines": [ 0.170333, 0.179909, 0.213286, 0.227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 140480, "typical_volume": 636666.6, "trend": 0.237333, "fair_value": 0.193205, "relative_strength": -27.206838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.787025, "energy": 52.739524, "activity_lines": [ 0.174667, 0.176909, 0.207619, 0.223108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.185, "volume": 30451, "typical_volume": 606717.9, "trend": 0.2345, "fair_value": 0.193077, "relative_strength": -27.678126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.121388, "energy": 45.645907, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.176091, 0.202857, 0.219731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }