{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d45c6a3-03da-4585-b395-86e63c4b3c1a", "symbol": "MSRUSA", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.313, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.618, "architecture_energy": 24.387, "architecture_maturity": 68.615, "architecture_confidence": 86.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 57.76, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 31.21, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.679001, 22.960637, 22.791724, 22.078399 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.165001, "trend_reference": 21.151644, "distance_from_trend": 0.095187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.026175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.541643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.148023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195712, "excess_performance": 0.112828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.541643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185829, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411842, "relative_activity": 0.734772, "balance": 0.279633, "dry_up": 1.505113, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050756, "annualized_volatility": 0.275529, "from_high_reference": -0.051004, "from_low_reference": 0.490718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.151644, "fair_value_reference": 15.026175, "structural_low": 17.812, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004728, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005847, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146789, "worst_return": -0.0439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038258, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01737, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.273209, "worst_return": -0.007437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042928, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077598, "worst_return": 0.008258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00674, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028812, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 2293464, "typical_volume": 727327.7, "trend": 20.683954, "fair_value": 14.821971, "relative_strength": 5.889589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.726053, "energy": 36.742351, "activity_lines": [ 23.113333, 23.268182, 22.523786, 21.729076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.445, "volume": 125655, "typical_volume": 550777.8, "trend": 20.845258, "fair_value": 14.886588, "relative_strength": 7.102142, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.535025, "energy": 26.814959, "activity_lines": [ 22.795, 23.134, 22.612091, 21.842692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.325001, "volume": 543523, "typical_volume": 563024.2, "trend": 20.991279, "fair_value": 14.952181, "relative_strength": 6.043211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.03783, "energy": 23.099827, "activity_lines": [ 22.564, 22.968818, 22.671162, 21.938159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.165001, "volume": 411842, "typical_volume": 560503.4, "trend": 21.151644, "fair_value": 15.026175, "relative_strength": 8.148023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.618416, "energy": 24.387134, "activity_lines": [ 22.679001, 22.960637, 22.791724, 22.078399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }