{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d4d30c2-ccb5-4ebd-a2a1-3adb2a98fd43", "symbol": "USAU", "name": "US Gold Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.012, "architecture_energy": 45.958, "architecture_maturity": 21.176, "architecture_confidence": 94.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.7, "rotation_up": 19.52, "upward_expansion": 13.36, "deceleration": 35.61, "rotation_down": 58.24, "downward_expansion": 82.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.235333, 14.621636, 15.091571, 15.483785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.62, "trend_reference": 16.265667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.688957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.271334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081176, "excess_performance": -0.26863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.654067, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1330839, "relative_activity": 1.130922, "balance": 0.654067, "dry_up": 1.0263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129543, "annualized_volatility": 0.759627, "from_high_reference": -0.342316, "from_low_reference": 0.513566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.265667, "fair_value_reference": 9.688957, "structural_low": 12.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.024089, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.030978, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.154401, "worst_return": -0.280389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075943, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11997, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.405479, "worst_return": -0.364706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.199295, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.280353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.485014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 9.558344, "relative_strength": -24.399687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.064632, "energy": 43.12163, "activity_lines": [ 14.448, 14.857273, 15.299762, 15.766581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.98, "volume": 1172741, "typical_volume": 1230964.75, "trend": 16.4, "fair_value": 9.614754, "relative_strength": -26.845991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.479197, "energy": 63.891853, "activity_lines": [ 13.832, 14.476727, 15.061048, 15.534108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.62, "volume": 1330839, "typical_volume": 1176773.5, "trend": 16.265667, "fair_value": 9.688957, "relative_strength": -16.271334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.011759, "energy": 45.957967, "activity_lines": [ 14.235333, 14.621636, 15.091571, 15.483785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }