{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d52a16d-eb60-498d-a2d1-08a8b14e5ec7", "symbol": "WSBN", "name": "Wishbone Gold Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.604, "architecture_energy": 68.732, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.218, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 62.15, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.224333, 0.228364, 0.246214, 0.298376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.2225, "trend_reference": 0.400917, "distance_from_trend": -0.445022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.788881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.717955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.358137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.682143, "excess_performance": -0.733378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.445022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.717955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.703581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073119, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.682143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351114, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1137910, "relative_activity": 0.578482, "balance": 1.351114, "dry_up": 0.852113, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089369, "annualized_volatility": 1.190501, "from_high_reference": -0.903177, "from_low_reference": 0.059524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.400917, "fair_value_reference": 0.788881, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.064867, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.085514, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.609023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.178694, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.198933, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.677419, "worst_return": -0.605263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.170732, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.256092, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.397849, "worst_return": -0.784211, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.207317, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.810526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.234167, 0.245409, 0.274679, 0.357586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2225, "volume": 826789, "typical_volume": 2673367.45, "trend": 0.462167, "fair_value": 0.83441, "relative_strength": -70.159379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.18827, "energy": 89.673464, "activity_lines": [ 0.229833, 0.239455, 0.264286, 0.34129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 2638909, "typical_volume": 2692325.45, "trend": 0.450333, "fair_value": 0.814058, "relative_strength": -70.027101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.595394, "energy": 89.263322, "activity_lines": [ 0.227667, 0.234864, 0.256262, 0.325989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 2101023, "typical_volume": 2752336.15, "trend": 0.425167, "fair_value": 0.800596, "relative_strength": -70.135209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.702114, "energy": 87.499187, "activity_lines": [ 0.226, 0.231318, 0.250333, 0.311452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2225, "volume": 1137910, "typical_volume": 1967061.5, "trend": 0.400917, "fair_value": 0.788881, "relative_strength": -70.358137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.603538, "energy": 68.732095, "activity_lines": [ 0.224333, 0.228364, 0.246214, 0.298376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }