{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d65ddb9-5c81-4424-b41d-ce5279df556c", "symbol": "USPX", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR US EQUITY INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.342, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.42, "architecture_energy": 56.165, "architecture_maturity": 50.366, "architecture_confidence": 80.382, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 55.86, "upward_expansion": 81.33, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 25.82, "downward_expansion": 8.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.8903, 65.473697, 64.814345, 63.538566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.6009, "trend_reference": 62.114302, "distance_from_trend": 0.088331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.953766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326711, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.327879, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12187, "excess_performance": -0.003755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006403, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.617866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 289073, "relative_activity": 0.736849, "balance": 3.617866, "dry_up": 0.63256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023729, "annualized_volatility": 0.140073, "from_high_reference": -0.000873, "from_low_reference": 0.229219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.114302, "fair_value_reference": 50.953766, "structural_low": 54.995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.01065, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.065364, "worst_return": -0.120065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.044662, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -7.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.135865, "worst_return": -0.053345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093284, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.002071, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.168004, "worst_return": -0.14867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.128404, "energy": 48.294849, "activity_lines": [ 65.159953, 65.036821, 63.910703, 62.750613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.56, "volume": 182122, "typical_volume": 489297.2, "trend": 61.702369, "fair_value": 50.584896, "relative_strength": -0.419684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.36817, "energy": 46.047597, "activity_lines": [ 64.988667, 64.963033, 64.125729, 62.944055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.2, "volume": 303291, "typical_volume": 403335.5, "trend": 61.883611, "fair_value": 50.761121, "relative_strength": -0.504996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.918773, "energy": 44.038822, "activity_lines": [ 65.082, 65.00219, 64.373522, 63.169708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.6009, "volume": 289073, "typical_volume": 392309.7, "trend": 62.114302, "fair_value": 50.953766, "relative_strength": -0.327879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.420226, "energy": 56.165295, "activity_lines": [ 65.8903, 65.473697, 64.814345, 63.538566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }