{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d6a0c7c-1226-40ee-9186-20cccdaa2bc7", "symbol": "MPL", "name": "Mercantile Ports & Logistics Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.967, "architecture_energy": 13.852, "architecture_maturity": 29.447, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.78, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 52.87, "deceleration": 84.18, "rotation_down": 22.99, "downward_expansion": 16.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013417, 0.013927, 0.013494, 0.011828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.01425, "trend_reference": 0.009608, "distance_from_trend": 0.483088, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.014348, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 48.468199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.352941, "excess_performance": 2.301706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.483088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.49935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.730258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.484682, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.002923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.352941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.827937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69356336, "relative_activity": 1.172798, "balance": 2.827937, "dry_up": 0.497085, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.523401, "annualized_volatility": 3.77915, "from_high_reference": -0.568182, "from_low_reference": 6.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009608, "fair_value_reference": 0.014348, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.112222, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.21875, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.329619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.345146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.113208, "worst_return": -0.462185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.55042, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.592414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.347222, "worst_return": -0.593023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.705882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.716315, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.483333, "worst_return": -0.814286, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-08-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.268908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-09-03", "end": "2022-05-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.47191, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-05-20", "end": "2022-07-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.866667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.270588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.372881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.842105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0325, "volume": 27583, "typical_volume": 907732.3, "trend": 0.047762, "fair_value": 0.254246, "relative_strength": -53.568063, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"fair_value": 0.014715, "relative_strength": 41.180452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.501075, "energy": 22.119389, "activity_lines": [ 0.014133, 0.014582, 0.012885, 0.010976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0135, "volume": 16526073, "typical_volume": 55827136.05, "trend": 0.009025, "fair_value": 0.014593, "relative_strength": 40.389633, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.021427, "energy": 16.842685, "activity_lines": [ 0.0137, 0.014318, 0.013143, 0.011288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0125, "volume": 7565564, "typical_volume": 55724549.05, "trend": 0.009342, "fair_value": 0.014465, "relative_strength": 29.739678, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.551198, "energy": 15.469741, "activity_lines": [ 0.013, 0.013955, 0.013257, 0.011512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01425, "volume": 69356336, "typical_volume": 59137511.7, "trend": 0.009608, "fair_value": 0.014348, "relative_strength": 48.468199, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.967401, "energy": 13.8518, "activity_lines": [ 0.013417, 0.013927, 0.013494, 0.011828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }