{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d820c06-c159-406d-a7f6-1e4232342265", "symbol": "3659", "name": "Bison Electronics Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.422, "architecture_energy": 95.033, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.754, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 85.93, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.083334, 19.563636, 21.376905, 23.184946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.7, "trend_reference": 25.596667, "distance_from_trend": -0.386639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.328842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.612863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.557123, "excess_performance": -0.998495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.386639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.403696, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.576129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.557123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.064165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602863, "relative_activity": 3.040353, "balance": 0.064165, "dry_up": 1.594986, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128858, "annualized_volatility": 0.57019, "from_high_reference": -0.596919, "from_low_reference": 0.043189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.596667, "fair_value_reference": 26.328842, "structural_low": 15.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.015326, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.014121, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.151311, "worst_return": -0.160998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039352, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.006092, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150301, "worst_return": -0.101619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033409, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.035415, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.143293, "worst_return": -0.08062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.638809, 25.239032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.6, "volume": 33510, "typical_volume": 198988.55, "trend": 26.578333, "fair_value": 26.289819, "relative_strength": -44.711397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.448925, "energy": 75.405964, "activity_lines": [ 21.25, 21.764545, 23.193333, 24.841075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 574088, "typical_volume": 207201.45, "trend": 26.285, "fair_value": 26.309917, "relative_strength": -47.624587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.996001, "energy": 84.009182, "activity_lines": [ 20.423334, 21.169091, 22.64381, 24.348925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.5, "volume": 54600, "typical_volume": 191425.05, "trend": 25.956667, "fair_value": 26.327674, "relative_strength": -49.21518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.94144, "energy": 89.791273, "activity_lines": [ 19.57, 20.579091, 22.112619, 23.846667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.7, "volume": 602863, "typical_volume": 198287.2, "trend": 25.596667, "fair_value": 26.328842, "relative_strength": -57.612863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.422185, "energy": 95.032736, "activity_lines": [ 18.083334, 19.563636, 21.376905, 23.184946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }