{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d82e794-9156-4281-896c-460271ef0c38", "symbol": "P4O", "name": "Planoptik AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.077, "architecture_energy": 33.053, "architecture_maturity": 33.199, "architecture_confidence": 42.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.9, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 24.8, "deceleration": 54.07, "rotation_down": 58.48, "downward_expansion": 43.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.872, 8.361091, 9.253238, 8.80957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.14, "trend_reference": 7.945333, "distance_from_trend": 0.024501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.507949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.805699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.061213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.628, "excess_performance": 0.56336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.805699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.824394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.180612, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.991995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.763323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43891, "relative_activity": 0.293437, "balance": 1.763323, "dry_up": 0.394485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258836, "annualized_volatility": 1.245072, "from_high_reference": -0.49125, "from_low_reference": 1.325714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.945333, "fair_value_reference": 4.507949, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.072, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043157, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.194175, "worst_return": -0.228448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.303419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014932, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080216, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.542857, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103226, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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10.523818, 9.627571, 8.563247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.28, "volume": 4721, "typical_volume": 138208.15, "trend": 7.392667, "fair_value": 4.397949, "relative_strength": 44.768746, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.792463, "energy": 21.912594, "activity_lines": [ 9.465333, 10.284182, 9.70819, 8.695548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.74, "volume": 76363, "typical_volume": 141646.4, "trend": 7.534, "fair_value": 4.424487, "relative_strength": 38.236488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.98902, "energy": 19.046376, "activity_lines": [ 9.118667, 9.972182, 9.716619, 8.782473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.04, "volume": 55997, "typical_volume": 143757.65, "trend": 7.657333, "fair_value": 4.445385, "relative_strength": 26.961411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.615318, "energy": 12.381409, "activity_lines": [ 8.709333, 9.517273, 9.64081, 8.815118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.6, "volume": 67555, "typical_volume": 146725.4, "trend": 7.761333, "fair_value": 4.464103, "relative_strength": 17.620889, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.84149, "energy": 13.996357, "activity_lines": [ 8.277333, 9.031636, 9.511238, 8.811419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.44, "volume": 68578, "typical_volume": 149344.95, "trend": 7.847333, "fair_value": 4.483462, "relative_strength": 11.941298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.043332, "energy": 21.343342, "activity_lines": [ 7.898667, 8.610545, 9.355, 8.790688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.14, "volume": 43891, "typical_volume": 149575.4, "trend": 7.945333, "fair_value": 4.507949, "relative_strength": 18.061213, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.077007, "energy": 33.053341, "activity_lines": [ 7.872, 8.361091, 9.253238, 8.80957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }