{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d85e57d-5279-4bb3-8443-f08239e44624", "symbol": "3290", "name": "Donpon Precision Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.362, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.243, "architecture_energy": 24.929, "architecture_maturity": 62.764, "architecture_confidence": 75.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.96, "rotation_up": 19.16, "upward_expansion": 54.78, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 46.12, "downward_expansion": 25.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.399999, 58.688368, 56.730273, 53.965785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.099998, "trend_reference": 50.714042, "distance_from_trend": 0.047047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.616982, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.169402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117529, "excess_performance": -0.323843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096044, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.562411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3623651, "relative_activity": 0.502482, "balance": 1.562411, "dry_up": 0.507449, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140857, "annualized_volatility": 0.517203, "from_high_reference": -0.274652, "from_low_reference": 0.597786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.714042, "fair_value_reference": 39.616982, "structural_low": 39.294533, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008647, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050315, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.146821, "worst_return": -0.070895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00842, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.126763, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.074856, "worst_return": -0.073034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138633, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14728, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.181095, "worst_return": 0.038247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 7301590.95, "trend": 49.190815, "fair_value": 39.030164, "relative_strength": 1.847711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.516, "energy": 70.310597, "activity_lines": [ 66.131648, 62.488323, 55.917403, 52.785385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.700001, "volume": 2986615, "typical_volume": 6916867.35, "trend": 49.758448, "fair_value": 39.216818, "relative_strength": -4.823952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.605165, "energy": 53.029392, "activity_lines": [ 63.805398, 62.772058, 56.708943, 53.463397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.5, "volume": 5312287, "typical_volume": 7065899.15, "trend": 50.093526, "fair_value": 39.343159, "relative_strength": -16.500262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.653706, "energy": 24.888325, "activity_lines": [ 59.32, 61.281067, 56.639839, 53.575756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.5, "volume": 2715346, "typical_volume": 7096020.15, "trend": 50.461016, "fair_value": 39.478447, "relative_strength": -14.872383, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.799716, "energy": 25.989378, "activity_lines": [ 56.413333, 60.07593, 56.728722, 53.795528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 53.099998, "volume": 3623651, "typical_volume": 7211506.25, "trend": 50.714042, "fair_value": 39.616982, "relative_strength": -18.169402, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.243385, "energy": 24.929073, "activity_lines": [ 54.399999, 58.688368, 56.730273, 53.965785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }