{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d9231b1-e463-4833-a9d5-2f2bb51f41b9", "symbol": "IS", "name": "Image Systems AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.285, "architecture_energy": 33.839, "architecture_maturity": 17.626, "architecture_confidence": 87.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.06, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 6.73, "deceleration": 42.15, "rotation_down": 50.41, "downward_expansion": 73.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7964, 0.829655, 0.835919, 0.856232 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.836, "trend_reference": 0.899233, "distance_from_trend": -0.070319, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.476374, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.433748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.475887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.197858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070319, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.433748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.730631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174365, "relative_activity": 0.472745, "balance": 2.730631, "dry_up": 1.200303, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222396, "annualized_volatility": 0.924608, "from_high_reference": -0.628444, "from_low_reference": 0.672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.899233, "fair_value_reference": 1.476374, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049196, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.044135, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.221818, "worst_return": -0.15493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.087288, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.870722, "worst_return": -0.322751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166532, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.176024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.679181, "worst_return": -0.353535, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.282675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206349, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017677, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.463977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110638, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.255, "volume": 275127, "typical_volume": 388257.95, "trend": 1.559167, "fair_value": 1.44625, "relative_strength": -18.31747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.491813, "energy": 28.085811, "activity_lines": [ 0.818667, 0.847745, 0.84919, 0.877637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.79, "volume": 289870, "typical_volume": 358454.65, "trend": 0.9227, "fair_value": 1.482489, "relative_strength": -40.949432, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.463692, "energy": 30.752157, "activity_lines": [ 0.7968, 0.838818, 0.841986, 0.86829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.81, "volume": 609048, "typical_volume": 366102.65, "trend": 0.9102, "fair_value": 1.479348, "relative_strength": -38.885399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.625263, "energy": 32.301471, "activity_lines": [ 0.788267, 0.832727, 0.837343, 0.861019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.836, "volume": 174365, "typical_volume": 368835.35, "trend": 0.899233, "fair_value": 1.476374, "relative_strength": -36.475887, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.28506, "energy": 33.838805, "activity_lines": [ 0.7964, 0.829655, 0.835919, 0.856232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }