{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6da71dd1-55f8-41e2-88dd-91f90ae8a65d", "symbol": "SHIVAUM", "name": "SHIV AUM STEELS LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.772, "architecture_energy": 46.774, "architecture_maturity": 83.753, "architecture_confidence": 78.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 59.44, "upward_expansion": 82.32, "deceleration": 65.55, "rotation_down": 19.97, "downward_expansion": 6.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 420.056669, 412.397273, 385.872381, 368.354301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 421.0, "trend_reference": 345.433332, "distance_from_trend": 0.218759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 302.339102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392476, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.720216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.451724, "excess_performance": 0.495433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.218759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.297202, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.451724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366642, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17261, "relative_activity": 0.423882, "balance": 0.366642, "dry_up": 3.937918, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100703, "annualized_volatility": 0.51471, "from_high_reference": -0.111814, "from_low_reference": 0.530909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 345.433332, "fair_value_reference": 302.339102, "structural_low": 275.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": 0.016474, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.410876, "worst_return": -0.106479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.160714, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.14491, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.963746, "worst_return": -0.042154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.410256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.338861, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.356495, "worst_return": 0.037667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.589744, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.435456, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.482143, "worst_return": 0.283422, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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344.903809, 334.248817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 424.549988, "volume": 676, "typical_volume": 1795.4, "trend": 325.774999, "fair_value": 298.87532, "relative_strength": 37.516663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.946999, "energy": 90.471592, "activity_lines": [ 393.783329, 369.430907, 353.730475, 340.927956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 425.0, "volume": 143128, "typical_volume": 8922.45, "trend": 329.908332, "fair_value": 299.666987, "relative_strength": 36.877808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.006488, "energy": 88.980732, "activity_lines": [ 409.21333, 381.734544, 362.011427, 347.329569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 416.649994, "volume": 455179, "typical_volume": 31675.9, "trend": 334.396665, "fair_value": 300.405128, "relative_strength": 32.487562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.308775, "energy": 82.04079, "activity_lines": [ 415.793329, 391.24727, 368.872379, 352.925805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 391.25, "volume": 102356, "typical_volume": 36789.85, "trend": 337.448332, "fair_value": 300.980448, "relative_strength": 26.567689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.117247, "energy": 57.310453, "activity_lines": [ 410.129997, 394.94818, 372.649284, 356.593762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 440.950012, "volume": 66631, "typical_volume": 40117.75, "trend": 342.213332, "fair_value": 301.723718, "relative_strength": 37.860657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.238932, "energy": 55.943997, "activity_lines": [ 419.616669, 406.480909, 380.605952, 363.27129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 421.0, "volume": 17261, "typical_volume": 40721.2, "trend": 345.433332, "fair_value": 302.339102, "relative_strength": 29.720216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.771894, "energy": 46.774322, "activity_lines": [ 420.056669, 412.397273, 385.872381, 368.354301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }