{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6db27432-3e0c-4784-8695-2fa8c8f98caf", "symbol": "URNM", "name": "SPROTT FDS TR URANIUM MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.842, "architecture_energy": 48.217, "architecture_maturity": 24.729, "architecture_confidence": 91.848, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.51, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 6.63, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 60.67, "downward_expansion": 82.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.996667, 51.788182, 55.18681, 57.840516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.53, "trend_reference": 61.729333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116627, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.092867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.527685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205102, "excess_performance": -0.330727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2519311, "relative_activity": 0.843311, "balance": 0.60654, "dry_up": 0.709359, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103189, "annualized_volatility": 0.427409, "from_high_reference": -0.358093, "from_low_reference": 0.292909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.729333, "fair_value_reference": 48.092867, "structural_low": 46.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013453, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.004151, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.228001, "worst_return": -0.147072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086593, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.034758, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.617778, "worst_return": -0.327277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.566747, "worst_return": -0.035751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.183271, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 54.213333, 56.292545, 59.591143, 61.638834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.29, "volume": 2518666, "typical_volume": 3379320.9, "trend": 62.888, "fair_value": 47.604718, "relative_strength": -17.990326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.702823, "energy": 60.35857, "activity_lines": [ 53.762667, 55.345636, 58.759714, 61.016086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.22, "volume": 2664789, "typical_volume": 3339964.2, "trend": 62.638667, "fair_value": 47.720067, "relative_strength": -24.428706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.079602, "energy": 75.1048, "activity_lines": [ 51.754667, 53.728545, 57.541619, 60.069763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.43, "volume": 1559318, "typical_volume": 3137509.5, "trend": 62.420333, "fair_value": 47.841891, "relative_strength": -21.899064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.172544, "energy": 72.140716, "activity_lines": [ 50.574, 52.636364, 56.551714, 59.217591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.57, "volume": 1733145, "typical_volume": 3046618.0, "trend": 62.024333, "fair_value": 47.952963, "relative_strength": -23.995755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.377762, "energy": 70.229223, "activity_lines": [ 49.642667, 51.582727, 55.549143, 58.324022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.53, "volume": 2519311, "typical_volume": 2987403.2, "trend": 61.729333, "fair_value": 48.092867, "relative_strength": -17.527685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.842065, "energy": 48.216704, "activity_lines": [ 50.996667, 51.788182, 55.18681, 57.840516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }