{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dba8cf4-0b86-4047-9311-91280143dd4e", "symbol": "VFEG", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.989, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.846, "architecture_energy": 20.984, "architecture_maturity": 47.414, "architecture_confidence": 82.066, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.84, "rotation_up": 29.68, "upward_expansion": 56.07, "deceleration": 87.74, "rotation_down": 30.18, "downward_expansion": 19.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.650666, 64.827454, 64.640095, 63.889591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.849998, "trend_reference": 63.011667, "distance_from_trend": 0.045045, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.960721, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.187396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067261, "excess_performance": 0.016026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232859, "relative_activity": 0.952906, "balance": 0.869968, "dry_up": 0.978346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03229, "annualized_volatility": 0.160424, "from_high_reference": -0.023859, "from_low_reference": 0.29626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.011667, "fair_value_reference": 51.960721, "structural_low": 56.110001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007883, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001849, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.065899, "worst_return": -0.029083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028245, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010056, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.101157, "worst_return": -0.043986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023088, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.114751, "worst_return": -0.015218, "sufficient": false 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3.044608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.788119, "energy": 51.850392, "activity_lines": [ 65.555334, 65.276546, 64.262429, 63.453076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.02, "volume": 258950, "typical_volume": 258394.75, "trend": 62.501667, "fair_value": 51.557051, "relative_strength": -1.715158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.738249, "energy": 20.517038, "activity_lines": [ 64.702, 64.902546, 64.24981, 63.495979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.089996, "volume": 219984, "typical_volume": 247470.15, "trend": 62.689, "fair_value": 51.682612, "relative_strength": -1.324937, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.285187, "energy": 17.334937, "activity_lines": [ 64.336665, 64.761999, 64.340095, 63.598452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.190002, "volume": 244510, "typical_volume": 246314.15, "trend": 62.838334, "fair_value": 51.813269, "relative_strength": -2.372844, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.376026, "energy": 17.876904, "activity_lines": [ 64.192666, 64.645091, 64.421048, 63.69529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.849998, "volume": 232859, "typical_volume": 244367.2, "trend": 63.011667, "fair_value": 51.960721, "relative_strength": -0.187396, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.846033, "energy": 20.984261, "activity_lines": [ 64.650666, 64.827454, 64.640095, 63.889591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }