{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dbe3de2-8f37-4c71-855b-5a50a9364881", "symbol": "UNITEDPOLY", "name": "United Polyfab Gujarat Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.77, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.697, "architecture_energy": 15.306, "architecture_maturity": 39.602, "architecture_confidence": 69.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.08, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 41.24, "deceleration": 81.84, "rotation_down": 41.28, "downward_expansion": 35.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.859334, 30.69691, 31.410905, 30.569936 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.870001, "trend_reference": 29.56, "distance_from_trend": -0.023342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.458038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.483706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.232778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002431, "excess_performance": 0.04614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.483706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.207038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154307, "relative_activity": 0.278836, "balance": 2.207038, "dry_up": 0.582754, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107005, "annualized_volatility": 0.499979, "from_high_reference": -0.435692, "from_low_reference": 0.401456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.56, "fair_value_reference": 19.458038, "structural_low": 20.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042672, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.593656, "worst_return": -0.40414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.140574, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.021883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.424658, "worst_return": -0.339752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.339528, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.255958, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.253425, "worst_return": -0.127428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.025954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.398441, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.389646, "energy": 18.637217, "activity_lines": [ 31.939333, 32.642727, 31.627476, 30.420129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.690001, "volume": 500232, "typical_volume": 623551.95, "trend": 29.199, "fair_value": 19.06759, "relative_strength": -8.138449, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.031628, "energy": 17.253036, "activity_lines": [ 31.072667, 32.028182, 31.592333, 30.455269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.17, "volume": 231175, "typical_volume": 602771.5, "trend": 29.33, "fair_value": 19.205058, "relative_strength": -4.783241, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.346566, "energy": 13.474875, "activity_lines": [ 30.583333, 31.562727, 31.578953, 30.517914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.690001, "volume": 404263, "typical_volume": 588384.0, "trend": 29.423667, "fair_value": 19.337045, "relative_strength": -5.556277, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.004408, "energy": 14.971321, "activity_lines": [ 30.48, 31.256909, 31.592857, 30.605656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.870001, "volume": 154307, "typical_volume": 553396.45, "trend": 29.56, "fair_value": 19.458038, "relative_strength": -11.232778, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.697222, "energy": 15.306476, "activity_lines": [ 29.859334, 30.69691, 31.410905, 30.569936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }