{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dc4b0f4-066d-47c3-839e-0aec78e19bfe", "symbol": "4250", "name": "Jabal Omar Development Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 63.993, "architecture_energy": 74.073, "architecture_maturity": 14.328, "architecture_confidence": 81.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.19, "rotation_up": 81.73, "upward_expansion": 66.62, "deceleration": 18.11, "rotation_down": 16.22, "downward_expansion": 22.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.434667, 15.906182, 15.547143, 15.509097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.530001, "trend_reference": 15.525667, "distance_from_trend": 0.129098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.229615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.048927, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089497, "excess_performance": 0.121326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.100489, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.789073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33674089, "relative_activity": 1.921915, "balance": 1.789073, "dry_up": 1.200161, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041555, "annualized_volatility": 0.244306, "from_high_reference": -0.116877, "from_low_reference": 0.262968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.525667, "fair_value_reference": 21.229615, "structural_low": 13.88, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00969, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016861, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093985, "worst_return": -0.111301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062772, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278302, "worst_return": -0.177397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.129853, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012264, "worst_return": -0.260274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.210959, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176215, "worst_return": -0.374621, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"typical_volume": 17138666.4, "trend": 15.336667, "fair_value": 21.5, "relative_strength": -4.651183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.465023, "energy": 14.41561, "activity_lines": [ 15.169333, 15.037273, 15.158714, 15.265914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.72, "volume": 17633980, "typical_volume": 17380547.85, "trend": 15.354, "fair_value": 21.438269, "relative_strength": -1.276795, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.047457, "energy": 15.512373, "activity_lines": [ 15.397333, 15.173636, 15.205905, 15.290645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.02, "volume": 13286299, "typical_volume": 16525117.35, "trend": 15.385333, "fair_value": 21.367244, "relative_strength": 0.363154, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.349008, "energy": 31.06622, "activity_lines": [ 15.660667, 15.349455, 15.277762, 15.333613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 19518298, "typical_volume": 16291148.3, "trend": 15.424667, "fair_value": 21.289038, "relative_strength": 2.678958, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.079667, "energy": 44.568373, "activity_lines": [ 15.831333, 15.496, 15.341667, 15.373269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.530001, "volume": 33674089, "typical_volume": 17521115.5, "trend": 15.525667, "fair_value": 21.229615, "relative_strength": 10.048927, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.992787, "energy": 74.072513, "activity_lines": [ 16.434667, 15.906182, 15.547143, 15.509097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }