{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dc6c642-eff1-40ec-a833-e5e208b6aff8", "symbol": "TOLL", "name": "Tema Monopolies and Oligopolies ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.935, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.768, "architecture_energy": 24.366, "architecture_maturity": 61.595, "architecture_confidence": 78.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.1, "rotation_up": 31.4, "upward_expansion": 61.19, "deceleration": 85.32, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 20.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.5563, 39.819673, 39.317635, 38.426158 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.0403, "trend_reference": 37.502353, "distance_from_trend": 0.067674, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.416496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.471536, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100008, "excess_performance": -0.025617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067674, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235183, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006449, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18112, "relative_activity": 0.343963, "balance": 0.606589, "dry_up": 0.433599, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036594, "annualized_volatility": 0.168889, "from_high_reference": -0.04523, "from_low_reference": 0.223726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.502353, "fair_value_reference": 32.416496, "structural_low": 32.72, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012295, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.06474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", 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"typical_volume": 54100.85, "trend": 37.274707, "fair_value": 32.235078, "relative_strength": 0.16651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.297792, "energy": 37.307682, "activity_lines": [ 39.750673, 39.898816, 38.999635, 38.13662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.1221, "volume": 32767, "typical_volume": 54267.0, "trend": 37.399843, "fair_value": 32.323098, "relative_strength": -0.421136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.003641, "energy": 27.004445, "activity_lines": [ 39.463307, 39.7801, 39.127154, 38.255806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.0403, "volume": 18112, "typical_volume": 52656.9, "trend": 37.502353, "fair_value": 32.416496, "relative_strength": -1.471536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.76761, "energy": 24.365907, "activity_lines": [ 39.5563, 39.819673, 39.317635, 38.426158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }