{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dc7fa36-28db-452e-b8e5-6f2f6d0c68a3", "symbol": "601618", "name": "Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.617, "architecture_energy": 31.234, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.352, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.73, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 17.36, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 31.97, "downward_expansion": 65.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.648, 2.623091, 2.696238, 2.782753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.62, "trend_reference": 2.891333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.114241, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.90507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162939, "excess_performance": -0.119735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 485871639, "relative_activity": 1.138047, "balance": 1.090805, "dry_up": 1.161994, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048444, "annualized_volatility": 0.241272, "from_high_reference": -0.390698, "from_low_reference": 0.060729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.891333, "fair_value_reference": 3.114241, "structural_low": 2.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.013668, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.005893, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.218978, "worst_return": -0.086721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.043904, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.039763, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.131313, "worst_return": -0.170732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053046, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062069, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.40404, "worst_return": -0.133758, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019418, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.61, "volume": 539441012, "typical_volume": 569381860.9, "trend": 2.925, "fair_value": 3.136056, "relative_strength": -12.329049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.908705, "energy": 68.94479, "activity_lines": [ 2.570667, 2.621818, 2.742762, 2.831161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 523403540, "typical_volume": 531516033.45, "trend": 2.912333, "fair_value": 3.128659, "relative_strength": -11.814595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.906568, "energy": 56.336163, "activity_lines": [ 2.596667, 2.616545, 2.723429, 2.813419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.72, "volume": 435666351, "typical_volume": 468929491.55, "trend": 2.903, "fair_value": 3.121469, "relative_strength": -9.568249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.176617, "energy": 38.367357, "activity_lines": [ 2.647333, 2.628364, 2.71319, 2.801011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.62, "volume": 485871639, "typical_volume": 426934730.75, "trend": 2.891333, "fair_value": 3.114241, "relative_strength": -14.90507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.617228, "energy": 31.233808, "activity_lines": [ 2.648, 2.623091, 2.696238, 2.782753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }