{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dcec63f-d609-4ece-9287-ef03f85b930b", "symbol": "NYC", "name": "New York City REIT Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.686, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.655, "architecture_energy": 4.48, "architecture_maturity": 24.697, "architecture_confidence": 73.951, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.86, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 39.23, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 35.95, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.619667, 8.554007, 8.508465, 8.498257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.72, "trend_reference": 8.64464, "distance_from_trend": 0.008718, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.028665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.828422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039648, "excess_performance": -0.165272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008718, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.635903, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240753, "relative_activity": 1.576938, "balance": 1.635903, "dry_up": 2.007197, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.23772, "annualized_volatility": 0.516129, "from_high_reference": -0.375805, "from_low_reference": 0.245714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.64464, "fair_value_reference": 9.028665, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.001149, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.002207, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.461007, "worst_return": -0.192144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055899, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.144528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201149, "worst_return": -0.19137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.223091, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.344761, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.218391, "worst_return": -0.284304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.045241, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.281287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010022, "worst_return": -0.08046, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.461007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033168, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07431, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.59, "volume": 16029, "typical_volume": 28994.05, "trend": 9.21775, "fair_value": 54.732833, "relative_strength": -59.266942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"close": 8.25, "volume": 301869, "typical_volume": 93205.3, "trend": 8.635473, "fair_value": 9.003801, "relative_strength": -20.182148, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.543324, "energy": 8.921741, "activity_lines": [ 8.518667, 8.494036, 8.441259, 8.513842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.41, "volume": 714348, "typical_volume": 128146.55, "trend": 8.64614, "fair_value": 9.007454, "relative_strength": -16.156441, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.210614, "energy": 10.446703, "activity_lines": [ 8.541333, 8.469847, 8.443906, 8.499295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.195, "volume": 40787, "typical_volume": 129790.35, "trend": 8.64064, "fair_value": 9.008897, "relative_strength": -16.579954, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.866313, "energy": 12.857979, "activity_lines": [ 8.450333, 8.398385, 8.4246, 8.470189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.01, "volume": 229876, "typical_volume": 141075.1, "trend": 8.654307, "fair_value": 9.01973, "relative_strength": -8.046726, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.398839, "energy": 5.108198, "activity_lines": [ 8.592, 8.498833, 8.482461, 8.494019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.72, "volume": 240753, "typical_volume": 152671.15, "trend": 8.64464, "fair_value": 9.028665, "relative_strength": -12.828422, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.655165, "energy": 4.480141, "activity_lines": [ 8.619667, 8.554007, 8.508465, 8.498257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }