{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dd0c444-ee0b-49e5-b374-0bd1374b8a27", "symbol": "ARDX", "name": "Ardelyx, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.348, "architecture_energy": 64.755, "architecture_maturity": 80.311, "architecture_confidence": 64.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.29, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 45.52, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 99.0, 106.675238, 112.330754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 99.0, "trend_reference": 118.760002, "distance_from_trend": -0.166386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.420769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.005144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231366, "excess_performance": -0.1767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022533, "annualized_volatility": 0.35603, "from_high_reference": -0.286229, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.760002, "fair_value_reference": 110.420769, "structural_low": 99.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001842, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.042654, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.042654, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042654, "worst_return": 0.042654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.158294, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158294, "worst_return": 0.158294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.061611, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.404409, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.061611, "worst_return": -0.061611, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 68.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 68.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 68.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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79.694845, "activity_lines": [ 104.8, 113.850909, 120.475239, 122.900001 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 123.950001, "fair_value": 109.270769, "relative_strength": -21.153158, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.184897, "energy": 95.744732, "activity_lines": [ 100.933333, 110.116364, 118.078096, 121.240431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 123.176668, "fair_value": 109.461154, "relative_strength": -20.678102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.666649, "energy": 89.033292, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 106.923636, 115.822858, 119.630754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 122.403335, "fair_value": 109.651539, "relative_strength": -19.69338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333022, "energy": 88.563726, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 104.272727, 113.709525, 118.070969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 121.630001, "fair_value": 109.841923, "relative_strength": -19.535116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.996652, "energy": 68.091861, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 102.163636, 111.738096, 116.561076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 120.856668, "fair_value": 110.032308, "relative_strength": -18.936165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.645395, "energy": 67.581595, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 100.581818, 109.908572, 115.101076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 120.083335, "fair_value": 110.226539, "relative_strength": -19.290282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.253961, "energy": 66.973599, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 99.527273, 108.220953, 113.690969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.95, "trend": 118.760002, "fair_value": 110.420769, "relative_strength": -19.005144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.348016, "energy": 64.755378, "activity_lines": [ 99.0, 99.0, 106.675238, 112.330754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }