{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dd641ee-b306-410f-b208-bfe9d12a0943", "symbol": "IGF", "name": "ISHARES GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.861, "architecture_energy": 13.406, "architecture_maturity": 38.539, "architecture_confidence": 38.216, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.48, "rotation_up": 35.45, "upward_expansion": 61.67, "deceleration": 61.39, "rotation_down": 23.39, "downward_expansion": 14.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.671333, 66.752475, 66.565968, 66.454538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 65.95, "trend_reference": 66.054983, "distance_from_trend": -0.001589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.92475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.02459, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017403, "excess_performance": -0.170051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10813444, "relative_activity": 2.54717, "balance": 0.568776, "dry_up": 1.133155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02109, "annualized_volatility": 0.11209, "from_high_reference": -0.039168, "from_low_reference": 0.144264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.054983, "fair_value_reference": 52.92475, "structural_low": 64.14144, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013513, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.016911, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.04078, "worst_return": -0.045721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028901, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.024234, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123011, "worst_return": -0.013715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034019, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.087259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137533, "worst_return": -0.028856, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.07622, "energy": 38.250353, "activity_lines": [ 67.12, 66.828301, 66.569868, 66.378766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.81, "volume": 3169395, "typical_volume": 3945532.5, "trend": 65.88819, "fair_value": 52.771389, "relative_strength": -3.348208, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.13529, "energy": 28.760623, "activity_lines": [ 67.018667, 66.871671, 66.611796, 66.450551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.95, "volume": 10813444, "typical_volume": 4245278.1, "trend": 66.054983, "fair_value": 52.92475, "relative_strength": -9.02459, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.861387, "energy": 13.406432, "activity_lines": [ 66.671333, 66.752475, 66.565968, 66.454538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }