{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6de203ec-4aaa-4169-be60-e38ea7769b89", "symbol": "ALP", "name": "Alpha Compute Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.603, "architecture_energy": 41.633, "architecture_maturity": 99.673, "architecture_confidence": 82.8, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.32, "rotation_up": 18.04, "upward_expansion": 4.42, "deceleration": 50.63, "rotation_down": 60.28, "downward_expansion": 80.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.202207, 0.217585, 0.247482, 0.277537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.192, "trend_reference": 0.345017, "distance_from_trend": -0.443505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.459331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.979703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -92.097038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.641791, "excess_performance": -0.829245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.443505, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.603872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.979703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.92097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.641791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.4114, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7707780, "relative_activity": 0.107529, "balance": 4.4114, "dry_up": 0.258281, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.484014, "annualized_volatility": 1.020368, "from_high_reference": -0.986087, "from_low_reference": 0.090903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.345017, "fair_value_reference": 9.459331, "structural_low": 0.176001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.144854, "positive_rate": 0.205128, "directional_follow_through": 0.794872, "median_excess_return": -0.144479, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.855219, "worst_return": -0.601208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.374182, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.406018, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.537173, "worst_return": -0.8429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.525239, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.675582, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.090365, "worst_return": -0.900302, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.283124, "energy": 41.618963, "activity_lines": [ 0.229287, 0.251318, 0.270537, 0.313294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.216, "volume": 13205503, "typical_volume": 71266731.2, "trend": 0.387607, "fair_value": 10.106201, "relative_strength": -91.802205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.7175, "energy": 40.067408, "activity_lines": [ 0.222587, 0.240324, 0.263469, 0.301275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1963, "volume": 8328618, "typical_volume": 71613670.05, "trend": 0.368637, "fair_value": 9.770279, "relative_strength": -92.220085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.41998, "energy": 41.382518, "activity_lines": [ 0.211507, 0.22782, 0.255238, 0.288932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.192, "volume": 7707780, "typical_volume": 71680730.45, "trend": 0.345017, "fair_value": 9.459331, "relative_strength": -92.097038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.60282, "energy": 41.632886, "activity_lines": [ 0.202207, 0.217585, 0.247482, 0.277537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }