{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6de3145b-d64f-4a76-8723-c8654569bd56", "symbol": "E3B", "name": "Eutelsat Communications S.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.196, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.51, "architecture_energy": 45.585, "architecture_maturity": 19.779, "architecture_confidence": 76.246, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.11, "rotation_up": 15.81, "upward_expansion": 23.01, "deceleration": 52.39, "rotation_down": 66.56, "downward_expansion": 52.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.100733, 2.228618, 2.527662, 2.50972 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.028, "trend_reference": 2.449967, "distance_from_trend": -0.172234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.791016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.111084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031981, "excess_performance": -0.096621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.447495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302953, "relative_activity": 1.012762, "balance": 1.447495, "dry_up": 0.870588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231983, "annualized_volatility": 0.80175, "from_high_reference": -0.55409, "from_low_reference": 0.265918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.449967, "fair_value_reference": 2.791016, "structural_low": 1.866, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037642, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.028125, "worst_return": -0.04716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.41875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.444975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.41875, "worst_return": -0.41875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.056771, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.096662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056771, "worst_return": 0.056771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.270026, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.261383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.149111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297921, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"fair_value": 2.85781, "relative_strength": -6.482473, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.108593, "energy": 22.190771, "activity_lines": [ 2.412267, 2.7056, 2.719905, 2.595757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.152, "volume": 228769, "typical_volume": 363713.85, "trend": 2.419533, "fair_value": 2.841586, "relative_strength": -13.557873, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.451879, "energy": 33.068626, "activity_lines": [ 2.3026, 2.573636, 2.677633, 2.579589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.044, "volume": 306814, "typical_volume": 321585.95, "trend": 2.433133, "fair_value": 2.824068, "relative_strength": -18.326871, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.064843, "energy": 45.082473, "activity_lines": [ 2.208333, 2.433582, 2.62559, 2.555361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.143, "volume": 203159, "typical_volume": 304681.65, "trend": 2.4453, "fair_value": 2.807985, "relative_strength": -15.839571, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.214446, "energy": 42.606018, "activity_lines": [ 2.171867, 2.326545, 2.582576, 2.536643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.028, "volume": 302953, "typical_volume": 299135.5, "trend": 2.449967, "fair_value": 2.791016, "relative_strength": -22.111084, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.509822, "energy": 45.58471, "activity_lines": [ 2.100733, 2.228618, 2.527662, 2.50972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }