{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6de926c3-56f3-4b7c-9789-6857af1c89a7", "symbol": "COL", "name": "Colonial SFL, Socimi S. A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.091, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.437, "architecture_energy": 56.16, "architecture_maturity": 7.185, "architecture_confidence": 74.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.31, "rotation_up": 65.92, "upward_expansion": 87.44, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 12.2, "downward_expansion": 11.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.570667, 5.504181, 5.472758, 5.426041 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.58, "trend_reference": 5.36635, "distance_from_trend": 0.039813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.328939, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047113, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.928837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049859, "excess_performance": -0.074572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011317, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015428, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.551116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5009094, "relative_activity": 0.996216, "balance": 2.551116, "dry_up": 1.042579, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037863, "annualized_volatility": 0.259877, "from_high_reference": -0.065327, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.36635, "fair_value_reference": 5.328939, "structural_low": 4.836, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.049098, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.064765, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.065041, "worst_return": -0.122901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.177617, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.16913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01581, "worst_return": -0.201626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.14109, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.180557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011382, "worst_return": -0.213185, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 5687298.65, "trend": 5.340017, "fair_value": 5.321298, "relative_strength": -9.606334, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.381761, "energy": 31.925515, "activity_lines": [ 5.458578, 5.433627, 5.414146, 5.380991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.605, "volume": 5340615, "typical_volume": 5290039.5, "trend": 5.349517, "fair_value": 5.323081, "relative_strength": -10.235775, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.937212, "energy": 47.834595, "activity_lines": [ 5.52035, 5.464327, 5.437667, 5.398087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.56, "volume": 5720458, "typical_volume": 5148020.35, "trend": 5.357184, "fair_value": 5.325597, "relative_strength": -11.170387, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.544818, "energy": 52.749808, "activity_lines": [ 5.547501, 5.4823, 5.455379, 5.411666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.58, "volume": 5009094, "typical_volume": 5028120.2, "trend": 5.36635, "fair_value": 5.328939, "relative_strength": -11.928837, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.437379, "energy": 56.159724, "activity_lines": [ 5.570667, 5.504181, 5.472758, 5.426041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }