{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ded4c60-0fc6-4ded-8753-32bb3e9dfdd7", "symbol": "ALPAT", "name": "Plant Advanced Technologies SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.416, "architecture_energy": 77.817, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.498, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.17, "rotation_up": 11.85, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 71.38, "downward_expansion": 87.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.213333, 5.555455, 6.04381, 6.383699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.58, "trend_reference": 6.867333, "distance_from_trend": -0.333074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.750103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.530261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.132189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454762, "excess_performance": -0.508073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.333074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.530261, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183493, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.441322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.214598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3873, "relative_activity": 2.559646, "balance": 0.214598, "dry_up": 1.988302, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15267, "annualized_volatility": 0.60085, "from_high_reference": -0.511727, "from_low_reference": 0.117073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.867333, "fair_value_reference": 9.750103, "structural_low": 4.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.029462, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.586957, "median_excess_return": -0.042036, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.35503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.068739, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.871486, "worst_return": -0.44, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.109289, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.165869, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.060606, "worst_return": -0.282238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08209, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027972, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027778, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.951295, "energy": 41.572477, "activity_lines": [ 6.213333, 6.270909, 6.521143, 6.799957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 583, "typical_volume": 1343.2, "trend": 7.08, "fair_value": 9.848308, "relative_strength": -34.411765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.20399, "energy": 45.875505, "activity_lines": [ 5.986667, 6.07, 6.386095, 6.678495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 7383, "typical_volume": 1376.15, "trend": 6.969333, "fair_value": 9.800872, "relative_strength": -39.614402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.135099, "energy": 52.628234, "activity_lines": [ 5.633333, 5.822727, 6.22581, 6.537849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.58, "volume": 3873, "typical_volume": 1513.1, "trend": 6.867333, "fair_value": 9.750103, "relative_strength": -44.132189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.415834, "energy": 77.817476, "activity_lines": [ 5.213333, 5.555455, 6.04381, 6.383699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }