{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6def210b-f068-4888-b55f-58700a43a02a", "symbol": "EL", "name": "Estee Lauder Companies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.437, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.563, "architecture_energy": 4.43, "architecture_maturity": 28.724, "architecture_confidence": 56.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.5, "rotation_up": 20.38, "upward_expansion": 24.03, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 32.6, "downward_expansion": 50.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.342667, 83.814182, 83.40161, 84.287255 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 88.35, "trend_reference": 88.754712, "distance_from_trend": -0.00456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 97.539303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.886353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105447, "excess_performance": -0.231071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090146, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.857724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10649113, "relative_activity": 0.586114, "balance": 0.857724, "dry_up": 0.583178, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082904, "annualized_volatility": 0.550542, "from_high_reference": -0.268457, "from_low_reference": 0.339439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.754712, "fair_value_reference": 97.539303, "structural_low": 65.960459, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023161, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02487, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.295939, "worst_return": -0.133885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10926, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.084988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307974, "worst_return": -0.284681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.061777, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.012828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102259, "worst_return": -0.217787, 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.116581, "energy": 25.06485, "activity_lines": [ 82.554, 83.866964, 82.587279, 85.483482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.29, "volume": 10179114, "typical_volume": 19154891.05, "trend": 90.310574, "fair_value": 98.485892, "relative_strength": -18.825795, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.912579, "energy": 25.595797, "activity_lines": [ 81.727333, 83.121343, 82.444169, 84.779796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.9, "volume": 10938914, "typical_volume": 18580655.35, "trend": 89.573819, "fair_value": 97.989151, "relative_strength": -15.689012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.06793, "energy": 21.028029, "activity_lines": [ 82.405333, 83.026182, 82.702329, 84.366211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.35, "volume": 10649113, "typical_volume": 18169027.85, "trend": 88.754712, "fair_value": 97.539303, "relative_strength": -13.886353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.563223, "energy": 4.429991, "activity_lines": [ 84.342667, 83.814182, 83.40161, 84.287255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }