{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6dfd65d0-2169-414e-b06f-db515bc36d34", "symbol": "300561", "name": "SGSG Science&Technology Co., Ltd. Zhuhai", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.514, "architecture_energy": 38.262, "architecture_maturity": 26.399, "architecture_confidence": 60.579, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 58.01, "upward_expansion": 56.79, "deceleration": 23.66, "rotation_down": 20.76, "downward_expansion": 15.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.672, 16.828857, 16.776351, 16.306547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.459999, "trend_reference": 16.336468, "distance_from_trend": 0.129987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.841663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.307322, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041761, "excess_performance": 0.034361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029724, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.123073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.256952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157691892, "relative_activity": 1.75079, "balance": 1.256952, "dry_up": 2.091527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156567, "annualized_volatility": 0.975644, "from_high_reference": -0.274371, "from_low_reference": 0.725234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.336468, "fair_value_reference": 17.841663, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.004235, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.008864, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 1.058582, "worst_return": -0.284319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028515, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.045805, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 3.694758, "worst_return": -0.159585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021331, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.060336, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 3.331963, "worst_return": -0.127321, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", 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12.580645, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.187639, "energy": 23.247751, "activity_lines": [ 16.613334, 16.155026, 16.293076, 16.01382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 224405532, "typical_volume": 80831887.7, "trend": 16.117802, "fair_value": 17.759036, "relative_strength": 7.991733, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.271921, "energy": 17.422918, "activity_lines": [ 16.994001, 16.228226, 16.415104, 16.074887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.459999, "volume": 148292931, "typical_volume": 84442133.9, "trend": 16.211468, "fair_value": 17.795203, "relative_strength": 12.357314, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.650148, "energy": 18.900653, "activity_lines": [ 17.263334, 16.420304, 16.559371, 16.16148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.459999, "volume": 157691892, "typical_volume": 90068969.1, "trend": 16.336468, "fair_value": 17.841663, "relative_strength": 12.307322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.513924, "energy": 38.262193, "activity_lines": [ 17.672, 16.828857, 16.776351, 16.306547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }