{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e007dee-863c-4756-a748-ad0164e3b729", "symbol": "PSN", "name": "Parsons Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.774, "architecture_energy": 43.628, "architecture_maturity": 19.809, "architecture_confidence": 90.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.74, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 40.29, "rotation_down": 53.92, "downward_expansion": 75.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.566667, 52.422909, 53.351429, 54.497247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.55, "trend_reference": 57.469667, "distance_from_trend": -0.172607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.65141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.345505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.160928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.315236, "excess_performance": -0.440861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.345505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01861, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.844581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9308428, "relative_activity": 1.397338, "balance": 0.844581, "dry_up": 1.484609, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144584, "annualized_volatility": 0.592565, "from_high_reference": -0.468715, "from_low_reference": 0.311362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.469667, "fair_value_reference": 72.65141, "structural_low": 36.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033199, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001007, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.182143, "worst_return": -0.176034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049354, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.2991, "worst_return": -0.138401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195446, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.062616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.305984, "worst_return": -0.17851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192376, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190363, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 55.45, "volume": 2955510, "typical_volume": 2163975.65, "trend": 46.359333, "fair_value": 39.732756, "relative_strength": 12.545212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.73, "volume": 4483370, "typical_volume": 5962651.55, "trend": 58.815667, "fair_value": 72.759167, "relative_strength": -19.455359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.762842, "energy": 10.386602, "activity_lines": [ 56.548667, 55.86, 54.918667, 56.127656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.21, "volume": 21466165, "typical_volume": 6627551.25, "trend": 58.215667, "fair_value": 72.697372, "relative_strength": -39.308083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.628977, "energy": 31.302919, "activity_lines": [ 52.776667, 53.751455, 53.950429, 55.185355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.55, "volume": 9308428, "typical_volume": 6661545.95, "trend": 57.469667, "fair_value": 72.65141, "relative_strength": -36.160928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.773628, "energy": 43.627753, "activity_lines": [ 50.566667, 52.422909, 53.351429, 54.497247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }