{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e019e64-a4ff-424d-a9ed-3df637e17791", "symbol": "AMPL", "name": "Amplitude Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.016, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.465, "architecture_energy": 78.24, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.201, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 78.61, "upward_expansion": 91.84, "deceleration": 42.47, "rotation_down": 9.92, "downward_expansion": 16.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.633333, 8.990364, 8.174095, 7.844882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.26, "trend_reference": 7.718, "distance_from_trend": 0.458927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.161923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.890568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.5574, "excess_performance": 0.369946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.458927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.492443, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078906, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.556825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5574, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.495908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14856065, "relative_activity": 1.332685, "balance": 1.495908, "dry_up": 0.921669, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11841, "annualized_volatility": 0.870132, "from_high_reference": -0.094127, "from_low_reference": 1.043557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.718, "fair_value_reference": 10.161923, "structural_low": 5.51, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.158746, "worst_return": -0.161025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063247, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.140314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235592, "worst_return": -0.374199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145821, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.329631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075834, "worst_return": -0.191217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033024, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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11279036.15, "trend": 7.963667, "fair_value": 10.208333, "relative_strength": -15.924831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.255152, "energy": 40.959408, "activity_lines": [ 8.229333, 7.743273, 7.349571, 7.425914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.6, "volume": 7523040, "typical_volume": 10823010.35, "trend": 7.902, "fair_value": 10.197692, "relative_strength": -7.229851, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.196562, "energy": 63.426568, "activity_lines": [ 8.839333, 8.152727, 7.579667, 7.531484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.1, "volume": 10389200, "typical_volume": 10791389.35, "trend": 7.774333, "fair_value": 10.178462, "relative_strength": -19.339765, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.502527, "energy": 54.778176, "activity_lines": [ 8.768667, 8.231091, 7.655952, 7.544258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.88, "volume": 8328779, "typical_volume": 10812469.9, "trend": 7.706, "fair_value": 10.1625, "relative_strength": -11.121461, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.775567, "energy": 52.158275, "activity_lines": [ 8.853333, 8.414182, 7.805333, 7.615591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.26, "volume": 14856065, "typical_volume": 11147467.65, "trend": 7.718, "fair_value": 10.161923, "relative_strength": 7.890568, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.46464, "energy": 78.239787, "activity_lines": [ 9.633333, 8.990364, 8.174095, 7.844882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }