{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e01d22f-2929-4a18-8ea2-a706aecf843b", "symbol": "XDEX", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets ex China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.421, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.478, "architecture_energy": 19.522, "architecture_maturity": 65.112, "architecture_confidence": 79.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.18, "rotation_up": 16.44, "upward_expansion": 45.38, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 40.96, "downward_expansion": 28.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 13069.466667, 13444.290909, 13447.728571, 13063.894624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13170.0, "trend_reference": 12526.2, "distance_from_trend": 0.051396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9082.821352, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.212876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166003, "excess_performance": 0.114767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051396, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082129, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166003, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808879, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4400, "relative_activity": 1.001024, "balance": 0.808879, "dry_up": 1.045899, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066934, "annualized_volatility": 0.289729, "from_high_reference": -0.127699, "from_low_reference": 0.536158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12526.2, "fair_value_reference": 9082.821352, "structural_low": 10642.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016939, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019284, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.155547, "worst_return": -0.029516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018572, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000905, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319572, "worst_return": -0.03119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030871, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028726, "worst_return": -0.044174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029089, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": 10.205511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.048846, "energy": 23.583393, "activity_lines": [ 13414.0, 13722.709091, 13440.447619, 12985.969892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12841.0, "volume": 7590, "typical_volume": 4516.0, "trend": 12443.933333, "fair_value": 9046.648275, "relative_strength": 6.277253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.102976, "energy": 22.444811, "activity_lines": [ 13137.6, 13548.781818, 13432.533333, 13017.051613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13170.0, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 4395.5, "trend": 12526.2, "fair_value": 9082.821352, "relative_strength": 8.212876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.47775, "energy": 19.521788, "activity_lines": [ 13069.466667, 13444.290909, 13447.728571, 13063.894624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }