{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6e0e2307-af98-4624-a7d9-0fdbe40d0af6",
    "symbol": "CGAA",
    "name": "CI Global Asset Allocation Private Pool ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 85.615,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 56.562,
    "architecture_energy": 26.45,
    "architecture_maturity": 44.173,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.644,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 30.5,
        "rotation_up": 35.36,
        "upward_expansion": 59.73,
        "deceleration": 84.58,
        "rotation_down": 29.24,
        "downward_expansion": 21.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        31.092953,
        31.119359,
        31.051961,
        30.815224
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 31.549999,
    "trend_reference": 30.605384,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030864,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.176469,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160931,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.694327,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.044376,
    "excess_performance": -0.076045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030864,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009367,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.160931,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006441,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076943,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004609,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044376,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.669492,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.669492,
      "dry_up": 2.210339,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014105,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.102453,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002524,
      "from_low_reference": 0.099563
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 30.605384,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.176469,
      "structural_low": 28.724298,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.014871,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007307,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.03118,
        "worst_return": -0.068456,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.022785,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010737,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.079599,
        "worst_return": -0.025191,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.041072,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064434,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.081875,
        "worst_return": 0.006232,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.066275,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011336,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.138298,
        "worst_return": -0.063228,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001929,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045609,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034561,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021396,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.00918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00103,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018289,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025683,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 665.0,
        "trend": 22.180909,
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        "fair_value": 26.331664,
        "relative_strength": -8.922857,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 2.481536,
        "energy": 21.33553,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.268602,
          29.944324,
          30.064461,
          30.139148
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 30.518633,
        "volume": 10900,
        "typical_volume": 3075.0,
        "trend": 30.21704,
        "fair_value": 26.38605,
        "relative_strength": -8.041278,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.36754,
        "energy": 28.968981,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.437222,
          30.055768,
          30.097813,
          30.159353
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 30.86702,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 3020.0,
        "trend": 30.239901,
        "fair_value": 26.441464,
        "relative_strength": -7.233379,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.35711,
        "energy": 38.073799,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.620929,
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          30.163351,
          30.201287
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 31.145731,
        "volume": 10300,
        "typical_volume": 3535.0,
        "trend": 30.27996,
        "fair_value": 26.498544,
        "relative_strength": -5.465988,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.40892,
        "energy": 58.222608,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.813081,
          30.451156,
          30.251883,
          30.259727
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 31.076777,
        "volume": 3300,
        "typical_volume": 3695.0,
        "trend": 30.303552,
        "fair_value": 26.555487,
        "relative_strength": -7.146181,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.460655,
        "energy": 69.838157,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.928976,
          30.631126,
          30.329355,
          30.311135
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 31.14661,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 3745.0,
        "trend": 30.321353,
        "fair_value": 26.612939,
        "relative_strength": -7.460586,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.228086,
        "energy": 70.577967,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.048668,
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          30.408981,
          30.365526
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 31.525719,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3500.0,
        "trend": 30.365981,
        "fair_value": 26.672821,
        "relative_strength": -5.137809,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.614358,
        "energy": 80.846949,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.240257,
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          30.522953,
          30.443227
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 30.986986,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3435.0,
        "trend": 30.380112,
        "fair_value": 26.727618,
        "relative_strength": -7.901458,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.944192,
        "energy": 66.087099,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.185128,
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          30.483292
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 31.415977,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3305.0,
        "trend": 30.434613,
        "fair_value": 26.787605,
        "relative_strength": -6.466425,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.250242,
        "energy": 68.211157,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.264999,
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          30.550122
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 30.840836,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2785.0,
        "trend": 30.442737,
        "fair_value": 26.843421,
        "relative_strength": -7.914085,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.136193,
        "energy": 43.225159,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.13514,
          31.100771,
          30.722805,
          30.57633
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 31.370163,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2760.0,
        "trend": 30.475438,
        "fair_value": 26.90257,
        "relative_strength": -6.784936,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.892101,
        "energy": 43.935226,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.197452,
          31.170731,
          30.810822,
          30.636164
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 31.370163,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 2775.0,
        "trend": 30.510781,
        "fair_value": 26.959116,
        "relative_strength": -6.660275,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.442411,
        "energy": 47.078653,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.244861,
          31.221771,
          30.893926,
          30.693888
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 31.05057,
        "volume": 18200,
        "typical_volume": 3635.0,
        "trend": 30.541745,
        "fair_value": 27.014219,
        "relative_strength": -7.223996,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.996486,
        "energy": 33.717099,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.196109,
          31.19922,
          30.942484,
          30.728713
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 30.711,
        "volume": 2100,
        "typical_volume": 2725.0,
        "trend": 30.558712,
        "fair_value": 27.065374,
        "relative_strength": -8.206156,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.076407,
        "energy": 27.140703,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.029929,
          31.111592,
          30.956663,
          30.739632
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.76,
        "volume": 4500,
        "typical_volume": 2905.0,
        "trend": 30.579626,
        "fair_value": 27.118359,
        "relative_strength": -7.368226,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.370883,
        "energy": 19.780113,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.92708,
          31.040778,
          30.970167,
          30.752619
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 31.549999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2805.0,
        "trend": 30.605384,
        "fair_value": 27.176469,
        "relative_strength": -7.694327,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.562073,
        "energy": 26.449599,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.092953,
          31.119359,
          31.051961,
          30.815224
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}