{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e0f2573-5c89-4559-84d3-245ae5bb5af5", "symbol": "SIMECB", "name": "Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 53.045, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.433, "architecture_energy": 18.58, "architecture_maturity": 49.836, "architecture_confidence": 80.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.16, "rotation_up": 29.01, "upward_expansion": 18.47, "deceleration": 41.15, "rotation_down": 36.43, "downward_expansion": 66.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.796668, 176.297456, 177.689953, 178.163012 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 179.990005, "trend_reference": 178.826001, "distance_from_trend": 0.006509, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 182.185449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012051, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.217196, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011044, "excess_performance": 0.043623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.39414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9052, "relative_activity": 0.093889, "balance": 10.39414, "dry_up": 0.045254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017116, "annualized_volatility": 0.145662, "from_high_reference": -0.011044, "from_low_reference": 0.101597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.826001, "fair_value_reference": 182.185449, "structural_low": 163.389999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.003994, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.011422, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.029087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011077, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.040654, "worst_return": -0.022045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040597, "worst_return": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 178.820007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 97349.35, "trend": 180.326334, "fair_value": 183.317372, "relative_strength": -5.124749, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.136945, "energy": 19.38203, "activity_lines": [ 180.732669, 180.58291, 180.024906, 180.052969 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 178.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96847.25, "trend": 180.226334, "fair_value": 183.214808, "relative_strength": -4.644917, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.298222, "energy": 19.051377, "activity_lines": [ 179.818669, 180.173455, 179.866382, 179.902883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 174.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96326.05, "trend": 179.959667, "fair_value": 183.070641, "relative_strength": -6.293872, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.845827, "energy": 58.322571, "activity_lines": [ 177.630668, 179.045819, 179.345953, 179.501184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 172.0, "volume": 720, "typical_volume": 95810.85, "trend": 179.626334, "fair_value": 182.891154, "relative_strength": -6.200128, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.307412, "energy": 85.002236, "activity_lines": [ 175.309334, 177.638364, 178.673144, 178.987657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 172.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95756.35, "trend": 179.293001, "fair_value": 182.660385, "relative_strength": -6.014703, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.773806, "energy": 89.416043, "activity_lines": [ 173.654667, 176.412728, 178.047905, 178.495635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 172.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95750.85, "trend": 178.959667, "fair_value": 182.455321, "relative_strength": -5.331376, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.084109, "energy": 90.936224, "activity_lines": [ 172.666667, 175.290728, 177.424143, 178.025119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 180.0, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 96170.85, "trend": 178.893001, "fair_value": 182.314295, "relative_strength": -1.457282, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.157439, "energy": 52.860265, "activity_lines": [ 174.8, 175.805091, 177.57181, 178.092237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 179.990005, "volume": 9052, "typical_volume": 96411.5, "trend": 178.826001, "fair_value": 182.185449, "relative_strength": -1.217196, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.432698, "energy": 18.580151, "activity_lines": [ 176.796668, 176.297456, 177.689953, 178.163012 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }