{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e0f4b15-d949-482b-a339-00040f6b1c9c", "symbol": "EWT", "name": "iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.436, "architecture_energy": 28.33, "architecture_maturity": 72.929, "architecture_confidence": 88.723, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.7, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 61.62, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 28.42, "downward_expansion": 22.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 1728.847347, 1758.206365, 1718.932379, 1626.694256 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1762.280029, "trend_reference": 1500.94233, "distance_from_trend": 0.174116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1046.721549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.683619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.275081, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.47815, "excess_performance": 0.532817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.683619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.292751, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.47815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.111796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1844, "relative_activity": 0.031266, "balance": 0.111796, "dry_up": 1.410761, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051198, "annualized_volatility": 0.302012, "from_high_reference": -0.076373, "from_low_reference": 0.678192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1500.94233, "fair_value_reference": 1046.721549, "structural_low": 1192.219971, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -9.7e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050318, "worst_return": -0.130734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079025, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000782, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.165001, "worst_return": -0.13163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155046, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.165881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.552453, "worst_return": -0.255284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039145, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"volume": 1844, "typical_volume": 58977.55, "trend": 1500.94233, "fair_value": 1046.721549, "relative_strength": 29.275081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.436096, "energy": 28.330204, "activity_lines": [ 1728.847347, 1758.206365, 1718.932379, 1626.694256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }