{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e1a7c40-61c2-4aa2-9400-723c68d9e95a", "symbol": "XKS2", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Korea UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.177, "architecture_energy": 24.391, "architecture_maturity": 64.528, "architecture_confidence": 72.692, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.9, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 42.73, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 47.49, "downward_expansion": 36.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 15562.533333, 16629.681818, 16975.971429, 16170.573118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15604.0, "trend_reference": 14944.85, "distance_from_trend": 0.044105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7927.089424, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.96844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.540278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.34703, "excess_performance": 0.295795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.96844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.566691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.205403, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.626875, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.34703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23256, "relative_activity": 2.064411, "balance": 0.614154, "dry_up": 2.336266, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116893, "annualized_volatility": 0.548364, "from_high_reference": -0.252044, "from_low_reference": 1.422417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14944.85, "fair_value_reference": 7927.089424, "structural_low": 9987.200195, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0097, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004947, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.295245, "worst_return": -0.079159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10091, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.124915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.698292, "worst_return": -0.087603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027742, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.293406, "worst_return": -0.096374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.045785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093281, "worst_return": -0.184851, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.388936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.62976, "energy": 26.0978, "activity_lines": [ 16585.0, 17584.163636, 17138.035714, 16095.424731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14921.5, "volume": 37894, "typical_volume": 10320.1, "trend": 14769.566667, "fair_value": 7865.009296, "relative_strength": 16.941298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.400474, "energy": 23.775932, "activity_lines": [ 15819.966667, 17020.381818, 17031.207143, 16116.73871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15604.0, "volume": 23256, "typical_volume": 11265.2, "trend": 14944.85, "fair_value": 7927.089424, "relative_strength": 20.540278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.177196, "energy": 24.390816, "activity_lines": [ 15562.533333, 16629.681818, 16975.971429, 16170.573118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }