{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e29fc34-7ef1-4cf3-802b-58ea05534f44", "symbol": "CRTM", "name": "Critical Metals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.515, "architecture_energy": 76.379, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.09, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 17.12, "deceleration": 37.49, "rotation_down": 80.24, "downward_expansion": 95.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071067, 0.079564, 0.089921, 0.094518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0705, "trend_reference": 0.105617, "distance_from_trend": -0.332492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.41046, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.828242, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.058912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.42449, "excess_performance": -0.475725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.332492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.828242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.42449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188026, "relative_activity": 0.305504, "balance": 0.928786, "dry_up": 1.258994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225205, "annualized_volatility": 0.838565, "from_high_reference": -0.664286, "from_low_reference": 1.326733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.105617, "fair_value_reference": 0.41046, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.067607, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 1.076923, "worst_return": -0.59375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.235294, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.283944, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 2.076923, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.478261, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.511573, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.769231, "worst_return": -0.758242, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176991, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.78022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.085, "volume": 603147, "typical_volume": 509979.75, "trend": 0.111867, "fair_value": 0.46554, "relative_strength": -17.543422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.626338, "energy": 53.135715, "activity_lines": [ 0.092333, 0.101182, 0.100221, 0.104691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0725, "volume": 684510, "typical_volume": 534584.4, "trend": 0.1107, "fair_value": 0.451422, "relative_strength": -30.602806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.489839, "energy": 75.057096, "activity_lines": [ 0.084167, 0.095091, 0.097514, 0.102152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0745, "volume": 1608817, "typical_volume": 598616.15, "trend": 0.1096, "fair_value": 0.437797, "relative_strength": -29.827424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.327511, "energy": 77.528236, "activity_lines": [ 0.079167, 0.089636, 0.0952, 0.099816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.065, "volume": 618099, "typical_volume": 615511.25, "trend": 0.108017, "fair_value": 0.42363, "relative_strength": -39.605907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.806666, "energy": 82.209592, "activity_lines": [ 0.0732, 0.083509, 0.092174, 0.096939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0705, "volume": 188026, "typical_volume": 615461.95, "trend": 0.105617, "fair_value": 0.41046, "relative_strength": -35.058912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.514829, "energy": 76.379487, "activity_lines": [ 0.071067, 0.079564, 0.089921, 0.094518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }