{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e33bd3e-abb9-4849-b85f-b8e88a9194a8", "symbol": "900922", "name": "Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.056, "architecture_energy": 22.098, "architecture_maturity": 75.936, "architecture_confidence": 70.349, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.5, "rotation_up": 25.92, "upward_expansion": 14.07, "deceleration": 46.26, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 57.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.607533, 0.605582, 0.609732, 0.630057 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.606, "trend_reference": 0.65134, "distance_from_trend": -0.06961, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.538949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.374863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10355, "excess_performance": -0.060346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06961, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265400, "relative_activity": 1.126803, "balance": 0.524796, "dry_up": 1.123513, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06177, "annualized_volatility": 0.263394, "from_high_reference": -0.381633, "from_low_reference": 0.154286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.65134, "fair_value_reference": 0.538949, "structural_low": 0.529679, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008851, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009479, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.425134, "worst_return": -0.199062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017315, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.016974, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.533809, "worst_return": -0.267758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176282, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.206016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.863567, "worst_return": -0.077922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.607618, 0.595846, 0.624164, 0.64404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.597, "volume": 223500, "typical_volume": 250921.65, "trend": 0.662107, "fair_value": 0.535891, "relative_strength": -11.41517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.632391, "energy": 26.186742, "activity_lines": [ 0.60627, 0.595787, 0.618673, 0.63953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.606, "volume": 131300, "typical_volume": 232114.6, "trend": 0.657707, "fair_value": 0.536866, "relative_strength": -11.409068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.551093, "energy": 24.541266, "activity_lines": [ 0.605957, 0.598676, 0.614796, 0.63591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.615, "volume": 438300, "typical_volume": 234733.65, "trend": 0.654007, "fair_value": 0.537911, "relative_strength": -10.628376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.812495, "energy": 22.637641, "activity_lines": [ 0.6086, 0.603442, 0.6124, 0.633155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.606, "volume": 265400, "typical_volume": 235533.65, "trend": 0.65134, "fair_value": 0.538949, "relative_strength": -14.374863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.056373, "energy": 22.098152, "activity_lines": [ 0.607533, 0.605582, 0.609732, 0.630057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }