{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e3ad879-0364-47b6-bf67-a2819abc3329", "symbol": "002153", "name": "Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.083, "architecture_energy": 34.534, "architecture_maturity": 92.331, "architecture_confidence": 88.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.89, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 33.75, "downward_expansion": 65.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.965333, 7.778545, 8.176306, 8.797151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.22, "trend_reference": 9.863677, "distance_from_trend": -0.166639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.862768, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.918947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357179, "excess_performance": -0.364578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197055620, "relative_activity": 1.894273, "balance": 0.314452, "dry_up": 1.573982, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091516, "annualized_volatility": 0.430006, "from_high_reference": -0.509648, "from_low_reference": 0.17094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.863677, "fair_value_reference": 8.862768, "structural_low": 7.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.043973, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.026436, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.498554, "worst_return": -0.20375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003209, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024832, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.466192, "worst_return": -0.309157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.242106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10659, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.565841, "worst_return": -0.369205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -70.334115, "energy": 66.254868, "activity_lines": [ 7.470667, 7.674182, 8.425224, 9.186868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.3, "volume": 129586119, "typical_volume": 94002590.4, "trend": 10.014977, "fair_value": 8.924064, "relative_strength": -29.293915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.245499, "energy": 63.101791, "activity_lines": [ 7.414, 7.552, 8.258843, 9.005235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.52, "volume": 214275005, "typical_volume": 99017200.4, "trend": 9.950321, "fair_value": 8.8931, "relative_strength": -15.493286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.170876, "energy": 43.546618, "activity_lines": [ 7.789333, 7.689818, 8.226362, 8.908785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.22, "volume": 197055620, "typical_volume": 104027062.25, "trend": 9.863677, "fair_value": 8.862768, "relative_strength": -21.918947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.082897, "energy": 34.533646, "activity_lines": [ 7.965333, 7.778545, 8.176306, 8.797151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }