{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e3b42ff-6268-467a-83e6-ad969ec2e510", "symbol": "GGE", "name": "Grand Gulf Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.951, "architecture_energy": 80.732, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.33, "rotation_up": 12.17, "upward_expansion": 18.85, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 69.63, "downward_expansion": 89.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0013, 0.001545, 0.001862, 0.00213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.00235, "distance_from_trend": -0.574468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004152, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.759169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.868293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.666667, "excess_performance": -0.730372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.574468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.759169, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.568683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.8153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.666667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.01296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275000, "relative_activity": 0.028755, "balance": 0.01296, "dry_up": 0.170714, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.5, "annualized_volatility": 1.686723, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00235, "fair_value_reference": 0.004152, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.03271, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.086701, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 2.090909, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.095178, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.090909, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.274954, "energy": 22.479926, "activity_lines": [ 0.001967, 0.001909, 0.002214, 0.00237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 4050000, "typical_volume": 10855481.7, "trend": 0.002417, "fair_value": 0.004274, "relative_strength": -32.909186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.762287, "energy": 40.045011, "activity_lines": [ 0.001833, 0.001836, 0.002119, 0.002311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.001, "volume": 317431, "typical_volume": 10269677.3, "trend": 0.002383, "fair_value": 0.004216, "relative_strength": -55.894042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.430886, "energy": 63.856398, "activity_lines": [ 0.001533, 0.001682, 0.001983, 0.002219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 275000, "typical_volume": 9563464.75, "trend": 0.00235, "fair_value": 0.004152, "relative_strength": -56.868293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.950928, "energy": 80.732161, "activity_lines": [ 0.0013, 0.001545, 0.001862, 0.00213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }