{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e401f31-2613-4d75-8325-7af66d7057c5", "symbol": "4172", "name": "InnoPharmax Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.574, "architecture_energy": 37.195, "architecture_maturity": 82.182, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.63, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 5.04, "deceleration": 48.01, "rotation_down": 45.24, "downward_expansion": 76.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.34, 11.464545, 11.955, 12.605041 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 13.538136, "distance_from_trend": -0.154241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.3161, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.338766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.553622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263666, "excess_performance": -0.705038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124301, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.338766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.505536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 903247, "relative_activity": 0.443018, "balance": 0.482489, "dry_up": 0.602547, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137051, "annualized_volatility": 0.437322, "from_high_reference": -0.517895, "from_low_reference": 0.133663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.538136, "fair_value_reference": 17.3161, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.039385, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029162, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.251082, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021661, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.040594, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.321033, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035276, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.249315, "worst_return": -0.291291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017508, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.13206, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.071307, "worst_return": -0.158845, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205589, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042614, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.312312, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 20.9, "volume": 3117766, "typical_volume": 5930218.3, "trend": 19.100075, "fair_value": 16.170652, "relative_strength": 22.20781, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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11.775455, 12.60881, 13.300044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.25, "volume": 552442, "typical_volume": 1989743.95, "trend": 14.066469, "fair_value": 17.552959, "relative_strength": -51.73103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.968852, "energy": 37.90804, "activity_lines": [ 11.603333, 11.625455, 12.414048, 13.10468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.25, "volume": 2290127, "typical_volume": 2031295.4, "trend": 13.879802, "fair_value": 17.473792, "relative_strength": -50.30039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.738934, "energy": 37.159824, "activity_lines": [ 11.49, 11.524545, 12.238571, 12.922973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1168197, "typical_volume": 2038944.6, "trend": 13.698136, "fair_value": 17.393023, "relative_strength": -50.929189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.728908, "energy": 39.057313, "activity_lines": [ 11.343333, 11.460909, 12.076429, 12.750082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.45, "volume": 903247, "typical_volume": 2038850.45, "trend": 13.538136, "fair_value": 17.3161, "relative_strength": -50.553622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.574371, "energy": 37.195015, "activity_lines": [ 11.34, 11.464545, 11.955, 12.605041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }