{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e430128-8dd8-4340-bf50-247e617151f9", "symbol": "XDNU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 4C USD Hedged", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.067, "architecture_energy": 40.899, "architecture_maturity": 63.866, "architecture_confidence": 77.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.14, "rotation_up": 42.92, "upward_expansion": 70.53, "deceleration": 82.66, "rotation_down": 27.68, "downward_expansion": 18.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.264334, 54.412909, 53.546643, 52.411183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.415001, "trend_reference": 51.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.085823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.484441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.975972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120967, "excess_performance": 0.069732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07976, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120967, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.915011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22, "relative_activity": 0.005667, "balance": 4.915011, "dry_up": 0.364351, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02559, "annualized_volatility": 0.207393, "from_high_reference": -0.009916, "from_low_reference": 0.417264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.035, "fair_value_reference": 37.484441, "structural_low": 46.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.041357, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.020414, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.070292, "worst_return": -0.027068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061472, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.051198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172796, "worst_return": -0.094365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063653, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017446, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22357, "worst_return": -0.034355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.242023, 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"2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028958, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.90992, "energy": 62.962549, "activity_lines": [ 54.511, 54.247727, 52.771428, 51.676914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4265.2, "trend": 50.508333, "fair_value": 37.129184, "relative_strength": 8.290894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.6311, "energy": 56.481415, "activity_lines": [ 54.359667, 54.357, 53.071024, 51.947204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.055, "volume": 1474, "typical_volume": 4321.85, "trend": 50.77, "fair_value": 37.300082, "relative_strength": 4.026485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.196877, "energy": 38.333426, "activity_lines": [ 53.869334, 54.177818, 53.210238, 52.111505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.415001, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 3882.25, "trend": 51.035, "fair_value": 37.484441, "relative_strength": 7.975972, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.067491, "energy": 40.898785, "activity_lines": [ 54.264334, 54.412909, 53.546643, 52.411183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }