{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e482984-7445-4f84-a04c-d293efa29fc1", "symbol": "NOVA", "name": "Novamarine S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.204, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.631, "architecture_energy": 60.07, "architecture_maturity": 4.982, "architecture_confidence": 63.586, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.34, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 63.11, "downward_expansion": 59.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.846667, 8.932044, 9.072144, 9.125566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.0, "trend_reference": 9.111793, "distance_from_trend": -0.012269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.975684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.506104, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.222309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046512, "excess_performance": -0.12438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.506104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 1.333333, "balance": 0.315789, "dry_up": 1.666667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024336, "annualized_volatility": 0.321435, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.111793, "fair_value_reference": 5.975684, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 9.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2350.0, "trend": 9.010126, "fair_value": 5.893908, "relative_strength": -0.977045, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.66594, "energy": 16.3082, "activity_lines": [ 9.073658, 9.102251, 9.187674, 9.176343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.9, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 1725.0, "trend": 9.053459, "fair_value": 5.922813, "relative_strength": -2.215231, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.657647, "energy": 32.851009, "activity_lines": [ 9.023459, 9.056727, 9.15718, 9.169238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.45, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 1850.0, "trend": 9.073459, "fair_value": 5.946881, "relative_strength": -8.038627, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -63.834969, "energy": 74.407127, "activity_lines": [ 8.826685, 8.938477, 9.086686, 9.130305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 1500.0, "trend": 9.111793, "fair_value": 5.975684, "relative_strength": -5.222309, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.631183, "energy": 60.069904, "activity_lines": [ 8.846667, 8.932044, 9.072144, 9.125566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }