{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e4bfcec-5c94-4105-a3c9-483c70cfbafd", "symbol": "GPTS", "name": "Leverage Shares -3xShort Artf I", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.669, "architecture_energy": 39.826, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.728, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.98, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 26.45, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.64, "downward_expansion": 67.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.890333, 38.465454, 40.526905, 55.706678 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.764999, "trend_reference": 75.021772, "distance_from_trend": -0.536601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 608.554032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.942873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.525597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.702303, "excess_performance": -0.873195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.536601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.942873, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.725256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.702303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.004969, "balance": 0.855713, "dry_up": 0.190041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.236345, "annualized_volatility": 1.307468, "from_high_reference": -0.852095, "from_low_reference": 0.304503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.021772, "fair_value_reference": 608.554032, "structural_low": 26.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046936, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.74409, "worst_return": -0.433917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112911, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202727, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.06576, "worst_return": -0.664412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.68648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.834949, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.68648, "worst_return": -0.68648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 58.86271, "activity_lines": [ 35.316, 33.528001, 45.79323, 62.796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.599998, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 163098.55, "trend": 80.032605, "fair_value": 618.251067, "relative_strength": -63.841984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.647407, "energy": 50.088905, "activity_lines": [ 40.142666, 36.103273, 44.03981, 60.55295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.790001, "volume": 770, "typical_volume": 161627.95, "trend": 77.639605, "fair_value": 613.416651, "relative_strength": -62.61716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.116499, "energy": 36.692442, "activity_lines": [ 43.636, 38.603091, 42.693715, 58.472782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.764999, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 160993.8, "trend": 75.021772, "fair_value": 608.554032, "relative_strength": -72.525597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.66872, "energy": 39.825526, "activity_lines": [ 41.890333, 38.465454, 40.526905, 55.706678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }