{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e4e0dba-7c6f-4c82-b700-903c34b43af4", "symbol": "IBC", "name": "Ironbark Balanced Income Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.433, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.351, "architecture_energy": 61.391, "architecture_maturity": 16.385, "architecture_confidence": 73.563, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.0, "rotation_up": 73.31, "upward_expansion": 89.76, "deceleration": 40.49, "rotation_down": 11.1, "downward_expansion": 11.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.434667, 0.431545, 0.430704, 0.429216 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.427261, "distance_from_trend": 0.029816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.409393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074763, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.49989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044858, "excess_performance": -0.018848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00926, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.964301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33168, "relative_activity": 0.293121, "balance": 1.964301, "dry_up": 0.91641, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01722, "annualized_volatility": 0.119709, "from_high_reference": -0.022222, "from_low_reference": 0.08867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.427261, "fair_value_reference": 0.409393, "structural_low": 0.409276, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above 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1.726301, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.891087, "energy": 21.110466, "activity_lines": [ 0.429333, 0.428818, 0.428889, 0.427784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.435, "volume": 202145, "typical_volume": 111586.25, "trend": 0.426631, "fair_value": 0.40906, "relative_strength": 0.514145, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.817345, "energy": 34.719364, "activity_lines": [ 0.431667, 0.429727, 0.429596, 0.428353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 33168, "typical_volume": 113154.55, "trend": 0.427261, "fair_value": 0.409393, "relative_strength": -1.49989, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.351321, "energy": 61.390747, "activity_lines": [ 0.434667, 0.431545, 0.430704, 0.429216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }