{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e507b64-09b5-4161-bb0f-0ae2a7f747ab", "symbol": "4006", "name": "Saudi Marketing Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.399, "architecture_energy": 52.332, "architecture_maturity": 81.55, "architecture_confidence": 91.219, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.81, "rotation_up": 12.97, "upward_expansion": 10.05, "deceleration": 39.63, "rotation_down": 61.87, "downward_expansion": 83.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.65, 12.781455, 12.874619, 12.926344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.49, "trend_reference": 13.07, "distance_from_trend": -0.044376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.758205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367858, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.605526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.078229, "excess_performance": -0.046399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007475, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078229, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193615, "relative_activity": 0.78675, "balance": 0.501801, "dry_up": 0.835195, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036214, "annualized_volatility": 0.147621, "from_high_reference": -0.304953, "from_low_reference": 0.056684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.07, "fair_value_reference": 19.758205, "structural_low": 11.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.009868, "positive_rate": 0.463415, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.011662, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.104128, "worst_return": -0.122012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.027766, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031461, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.328935, "worst_return": -0.269286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.156429, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.054628, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.342857, "worst_return": -0.24303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.166927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120078, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.101254, "worst_return": -0.360771, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 12.970667, 12.946, 12.982381, 13.053011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.94, "volume": 280775, "typical_volume": 256639.9, "trend": 13.207333, "fair_value": 20.031795, "relative_strength": -7.899903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.422791, "energy": 15.608941, "activity_lines": [ 12.964667, 12.946545, 12.981857, 13.033892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.89, "volume": 136573, "typical_volume": 242588.55, "trend": 13.168667, "fair_value": 19.93782, "relative_strength": -8.395071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.787959, "energy": 18.628003, "activity_lines": [ 12.938667, 12.940909, 12.974238, 13.013419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.44, "volume": 211185, "typical_volume": 240819.85, "trend": 13.111, "fair_value": 19.847692, "relative_strength": -9.340241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.443191, "energy": 39.372701, "activity_lines": [ 12.772667, 12.853818, 12.921905, 12.966409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.49, "volume": 193615, "typical_volume": 246094.65, "trend": 13.07, "fair_value": 19.758205, "relative_strength": -10.605526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.39902, "energy": 52.33182, "activity_lines": [ 12.65, 12.781455, 12.874619, 12.926344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }