{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e56cd7a-417d-4ed5-9c6b-6c12b02b9583", "symbol": "002777", "name": "Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software.Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.579, "architecture_energy": 46.83, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.249, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 19.78, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 46.38, "downward_expansion": 72.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.75, 12.632319, 13.485862, 14.51477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.16, "trend_reference": 16.089091, "distance_from_trend": -0.182054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.061324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.14858, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.335354, "excess_performance": -0.342753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012721, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612142, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53722211, "relative_activity": 1.692453, "balance": 0.612142, "dry_up": 1.390152, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084113, "annualized_volatility": 0.334152, "from_high_reference": -0.45098, "from_low_reference": 0.124786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.089091, "fair_value_reference": 19.061324, "structural_low": 11.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.018222, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.006197, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.443306, "worst_return": -0.206032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019313, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.563498, "worst_return": -0.230011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.167036, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.057686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.436964, "worst_return": -0.208228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -71.188979, "energy": 86.635726, "activity_lines": [ 12.440667, 13.136472, 14.394199, 15.51531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.29, "volume": 38602331, "typical_volume": 30568457.45, "trend": 16.605757, "fair_value": 19.418695, "relative_strength": -31.562446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.036951, "energy": 68.4806, "activity_lines": [ 12.334, 12.839103, 14.084377, 15.225261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.82, "volume": 36302921, "typical_volume": 29816547.85, "trend": 16.398424, "fair_value": 19.297689, "relative_strength": -33.642875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.725798, "energy": 68.519246, "activity_lines": [ 12.135333, 12.53058, 13.766792, 14.916502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.26, "volume": 47878567, "typical_volume": 30594301.1, "trend": 16.248424, "fair_value": 19.168632, "relative_strength": -23.647453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.667048, "energy": 58.382567, "activity_lines": [ 12.503333, 12.567983, 13.619113, 14.714023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.16, "volume": 53722211, "typical_volume": 31742218.85, "trend": 16.089091, "fair_value": 19.061324, "relative_strength": -27.14858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.579399, "energy": 46.83037, "activity_lines": [ 12.75, 12.632319, 13.485862, 14.51477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }