{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e5a8542-6464-4d4d-9188-4c201b19b90b", "symbol": "WGE", "name": "Well Graded Engineering Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.48, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.375, "architecture_energy": 22.186, "architecture_maturity": 16.276, "architecture_confidence": 72.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.51, "rotation_up": 18.84, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 54.9, "rotation_down": 45.72, "downward_expansion": 66.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.714, 0.720909, 0.715905, 0.72772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.7, "trend_reference": 0.751, "distance_from_trend": -0.067909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.762051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.39069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.317325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006443, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.770587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1863000, "relative_activity": 1.268663, "balance": 1.770587, "dry_up": 1.151399, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064835, "annualized_volatility": 0.255424, "from_high_reference": -0.285714, "from_low_reference": 0.060606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.751, "fair_value_reference": 0.762051, "structural_low": 0.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.012658, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.026472, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.15873, "worst_return": -0.202532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.05493, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.053333, "worst_return": -0.089744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029824, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.054054, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038711, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026266, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038462, "worst_return": -0.038961, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202532, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1496785.0, "trend": 0.757333, "fair_value": 0.765769, "relative_strength": -21.82519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.209349, "energy": 13.42027, "activity_lines": [ 0.728667, 0.722364, 0.719048, 0.737634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.74, "volume": 1720100, "typical_volume": 1383805.0, "trend": 0.757, "fair_value": 0.764808, "relative_strength": -19.892298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.969866, "energy": 9.114454, "activity_lines": [ 0.731333, 0.726909, 0.719619, 0.736516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.71, "volume": 2519600, "typical_volume": 1455520.0, "trend": 0.755667, "fair_value": 0.763718, "relative_strength": -22.742167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.198263, "energy": 17.864115, "activity_lines": [ 0.723333, 0.725455, 0.717905, 0.733484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.72, "volume": 660500, "typical_volume": 1444420.0, "trend": 0.753667, "fair_value": 0.762821, "relative_strength": -20.205648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.272853, "energy": 16.459574, "activity_lines": [ 0.721333, 0.725455, 0.717619, 0.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7, "volume": 1863000, "typical_volume": 1468475.0, "trend": 0.751, "fair_value": 0.762051, "relative_strength": -21.39069, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.374744, "energy": 22.185673, "activity_lines": [ 0.714, 0.720909, 0.715905, 0.72772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }