{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e5e2dd6-7823-4881-aee2-d27696fe8186", "symbol": "CIBR", "name": "First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity UCITS ETF Class A USD Accumulation", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.14, "architecture_energy": 73.862, "architecture_maturity": 52.993, "architecture_confidence": 92.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 66.89, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 58.34, "rotation_down": 26.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.751334, 45.711727, 42.782595, 39.984634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.865002, "trend_reference": 36.915667, "distance_from_trend": 0.323693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.408468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.420145, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.763404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.561931, "excess_performance": 0.479047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.323693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.420145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.197634, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246807, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.561931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.274158, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8245, "relative_activity": 1.279981, "balance": 4.274158, "dry_up": 0.872429, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043188, "annualized_volatility": 0.314667, "from_high_reference": -0.019071, "from_low_reference": 0.713059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.915667, "fair_value_reference": 34.408468, "structural_low": 28.525, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007572, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.111058, "worst_return": -0.139847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007137, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000623, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.107189, "worst_return": -0.168017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054679, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039777, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116963, "worst_return": -0.206648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 35.802333, "fair_value": 34.078327, "relative_strength": 14.470232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.587495, "energy": 80.218547, "activity_lines": [ 45.302666, 44.018636, 40.304833, 37.963548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.014999, "volume": 946, "typical_volume": 6953.45, "trend": 36.120166, "fair_value": 34.174513, "relative_strength": 12.230274, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.507357, "energy": 70.611798, "activity_lines": [ 45.471999, 44.413727, 41.050928, 38.557914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.84, "volume": 2856, "typical_volume": 6645.65, "trend": 36.470666, "fair_value": 34.281891, "relative_strength": 14.155189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.775327, "energy": 67.042269, "activity_lines": [ 45.731333, 44.834727, 41.807857, 39.185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.865002, "volume": 8245, "typical_volume": 6441.5, "trend": 36.915667, "fair_value": 34.408468, "relative_strength": 19.763404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.140345, "energy": 73.86187, "activity_lines": [ 46.751334, 45.711727, 42.782595, 39.984634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }